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Bakkot comments on Open Thread, March 16-31, 2012 - Less Wrong Discussion

2 Post author: OpenThreadGuy 16 March 2012 04:53AM

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Comment author: Bakkot 31 March 2012 03:29:27PM 0 points [-]

I've been thinking a lot lately about self-deception. That phrase conjures in my mind images of intentional behavior, possibly in response to trauma or something, but I'm interested more generally in the difficulty of inferring things about oneself based on one's past actions. I think developing one's instinct for catching this could go a long way towards fighting traditional impediments to getting things done effectively (eg, akrasia); as such this would a very important epistemic rationality skill.

In particular, I'm thinking of a study which purported to show that people have significantly more difficulty judging their own historical mental states based on recordings of their actions than they do other people's; the paper hypothesized that maybe this was to allow for better lying in the ancestral environment (no need to act when you legitimately believe you'll be keeping that promise, despite all evidence to the contrary). If someone happens to have that study on hand I'd love to find it again.

If anyone has any good paper-length reading material on or related to this topic, please share. If I can find good material, and if there's interest, I'll try to write something up.

Comment author: Bakkot 31 March 2012 03:36:52PM 0 points [-]

This is only tangentially related to the above (which is why I've split it off into a reply).

Something I recently notice myself doing is overestimating my ability to finish tasks in a short time period. I believe this overestimate is a major factor in my procrastination: if I knew exactly how much difficulty I'd have doing something both quickly and well, I think I'd be more motivated to start earlier. As it stands, I have been able to perform very well under time constraints sometimes, so I tend to assume I'll be able to every time, and end up putting things off past the point where I'll be able to do them well.

Just noticing that I was doing this, and repeating to myself that my estimates of my own ability here are extremely suspect in that they seem to differ substantially from what historical evidence suggests, has gone a long way to improving my ability to get things done. This improvement is why I've been thinking more generally about the idea in the parent.