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timtyler comments on Neil Armstrong died before we could defeat death - Less Wrong Discussion
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Evolutionary progress has an element of luck (sure we could be wiped out by a meteorite tomorrow) but negative events so far have been relatively rare.
IMO, you're reading your trend lines wrong - failing to properly account for the decrease in warfare and the rise of surveillance technology.
We are not talking about a "nontrivial chance" here. We are talking about "existential disaster seems likely". I read that as meaning the chances seem greater than 50%.
I find it very, very hard to estimate the actual chances of any particular existential disaster. I would not put that chance below 20% this century.