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Open Thread, September 1-15, 2012

6 Post author: OpenThreadGuy 01 September 2012 08:13AM

If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post, even in Discussion, it goes here.

Comments (353)

Comment author: Metus 01 September 2012 02:08:28PM 15 points [-]

After reading David Burns's "Feeling Good" and receiving a score on the depression test corresponding to a severe depression I tried the exercises in the book. Though I still struggle with them, they have helped me temendously and lowered the score on the test after only a week. I can not attribute the change only to the exercises seeing as I have been more strict in my meditation regimen (15min at evening). The exercises are very interesting to this community I think and maybe I will write a dedicated discussion post.

With my new found optimism/hope/energy I am much more motivated to start exercising again in the next days, maybe a programming project and again taking up quantifying myself.

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 01 September 2012 03:01:35PM 5 points [-]

Feeling Good also helped me a lot, I think I self-diagnosed on moderate depression using its test and then got much better after reading the first chapters of it.

Comment author: Gabriel 02 September 2012 06:22:11PM *  4 points [-]

The exercises are very interesting to this community I think and maybe I will write a dedicated discussion post.

Write a main post! Summarizing a widely acclaimed book about a rationality-related topic of interest to many LessWrongers surely constitutes worthy subject matter.

Comment author: Metus 02 September 2012 06:55:06PM 3 points [-]

I am going to write it in discussion. If the moderators feel it belongs in main they can move it.

Comment author: [deleted] 06 September 2012 03:44:58PM *  13 points [-]

Related to: List of public drafts on LessWrong

An online course in rationality?

A month or two ago I made a case on the #lesswrong channel on IRC that a massive online class or several created in partnership with and organization like Khan Academy or Udacity, would be a worthy project for CFAR and LW. I specifically mention those two organizations because they are more open to non-academic instructors than say Coursera or EdX and seem more willing to innovate rather than just dump classical university style lectures online.

The reason I consider it a worthy project, is besides it exposing far more people to the material and ideas we want to spread, it would allow us to make progress on the difficult problems of teaching and testing "rationality" with the magic of Big Data and even something as basic as A/B testing to help us.

I considered making an article on it but several people advised me that this would prove a distraction for CFAR, more trouble than is worth at this early stage. I have set up a one year reminder to make such a proposal next summer and plan to do some research on the subject in the meanwhile to see if it really is as good an opportunity as I think it would be.

Comment author: Mitchell_Porter 03 September 2012 04:29:10PM 12 points [-]

I just ran across this in Wikipedia:

"Our "real will" (in Bosanquet's terms) or "rational will" (in Blanshard's) is simply that which we would want, all things considered, if our reflections upon what we presently desire were pursued to their ideal limit."

This is remarkably similar to the informal descriptions of CEV and moral "renormalization" that exist. Someone should look into the literature on Bosanquet and Blanshard's rational will, and see if there's anything else of use.

Comment author: wedrifid 03 September 2012 04:48:57PM 4 points [-]

This is remarkably similar to the informal descriptions of CEV and moral "renormalization" that exist. Someone should look into the literature on Bosanquet and Blanshard's rational will, and see if there's anything else of use.

Thanks for the reference. It's a shame that the informal description wasn't attached to a more distinctive label. If so it would be worth adopting it for the sake of conformity.

Comment author: Will_Newsome 07 September 2012 09:16:30AM 2 points [-]

If I had a dollar for every time a philosopher talked informally about something potentially very cool...

Comment author: RichardKennaway 07 September 2012 05:31:35PM 6 points [-]

...then you'd have a dollar for every post in the Sequences.

Comment author: Alicorn 03 September 2012 02:52:06AM *  12 points [-]

I'm thinking about a fantasy setting that I expect to set stories in in the future, and I have a cryptography problem.

Specifically, there are no computers in this setting (ruling out things like supercomplicated RSA). And all the adults share bodies (generally, one body has two people in it). One's asleep (insensate, not forming memories about what's going on, and not in any sort of control over the body) and one's awake (in control, forming memories, experiencing what's going on) at any given time. There is not necessarily any visible sign when one party falls asleep and the other wakes, although there are fakeable correlates (basically, acting like you just appeared wherever you are). It does not follow a rigid schedule, although there is an approximate maximum period of time someone can stay awake for, and there are (also fakeable) symptoms of tiredness. Persons who share bodies still have distinct legal and social existences, so if one commits a crime, the other is entitled to walk free while awake as long as they come back before sleeping - but how do they prove it?

There are likely to be three levels of security, with one being "asking", the second being a sort of "oh yeah? prove it" ("tell me something only my wife would know / exhibit a skill your cohabitor hasn't mastered / etc."), and the third being... something. Because you don't want to turn loose someone who could be a dangerous criminal just because they were collaborating with a third party to learn information, or broke into the National Database of Secret Person-Distinguishing Passphrases, or didn't disclose all their skills to some central skill registry - but you don't want to lock up innocent people who made bad choices about who to move in with when they were eight, either.

Is there something that doesn't require computers, or human-atypical levels of memorization/computation, or rely critically on a potentially-break-into-able National Database of Secret Person-Distinguishing Passphrases, which will let someone have a permanently private bit of information they can use to verify to arbitrary others who they are? (There is magic, but it is not math-doing magic.)

Comment author: sixes_and_sevens 03 September 2012 01:31:08PM 6 points [-]

All personalities are given a pair of esoteric stimuli. Through reinforcement/punishment, one personality is conditioned to have a positive physiological reaction to Stimulus A and a negative physiological reaction stimulus B. The other personality is given the converse.

The stimuli are all drawn from a common pool of images like "bear", "hat" or "bicycle", so one half of a stimuli pair may be "a bear in a hat on a bicycle". There's a canonical set of stimuli, like a huge deck of cards, with all possible combinations, all of which are numbered. The numbers for my stimuli pair are tattoed on my body in some obscure location, like the sole of my foot.

If I need to prove my identity, I show my tattoo to the authority figure. It will read something like "1184/0346". They pick out either image 1184 (bear in a hat on a bicycle) or image 0346 (a sword in a hill being struck by lightning), and show it to me. My immediate response will be either arousal or disgust, and they will know which personality I am.

Comment author: [deleted] 03 September 2012 06:23:26AM *  5 points [-]

Persons who share bodies still have distinct legal and social existences, so if one commits a crime, the other is entitled to walk free while awake as long as they come back before sleeping - but how do they prove it?

Is this a realistic cultural adaptation? In most human societies if you are stuck working or living with someone your social existence is somewhat shared. A person from your clan doing something bad is a also bad for your own reputation. If someone from your family committed a crime some legal traditions would hold you responsible. It seems much more plausible that society would consider the two people living in the same body to be legally treated at least like a married couple or brothers where in some past ones.

Given your constraints and assuming no cheap and easy test of distinguishing them, of all historical examples I can think of, only modern Western culture with its hyper-individual liberalism would bother with the impracticality of treating the two people like two fully distinct individuals. And even then they would have to give a family-like if not legal guardian-like relationship for the issue of making medical decisions. Not sharing your place of residence and ownership over it would be impractical, though perhaps there would be a strong norm of not going into the other guys part of the house.

Also as a minor note the culture would probably develop a norm of some sort of marker (perhaps clothes, jewellery) or face paint to show which of the two persons in currently in control. The distinction would be more or less universal not simply individualized so even strangers could tell this was two different persons. Think more "Ah I see your patron god is the first twin Jahu. Your cohabitor was here yesterday." instead of "Aha James always wears his leather jacket you must be Harry!". Using the wrong marker would probably at least as taboo as cross-dressing was in some past cultures.

Comment author: Alicorn 03 September 2012 07:20:59AM 2 points [-]

I'm not trying to get too much into the cultural details here - certainly cultures vary in the setting. Some of them do treat cohabiting like it's on par with marriage, and even arrange it through families (which makes sense: if we want to share grandchildren, we arrange for our kids to get married if they're the opposite sex, but if they're the same sex nonfantasy humans are out of grandchildren-sharing luck. In comes cohabitation!) But importantly, cohabitors cannot talk to each other. There is no way for them to socially pressure each other outside of self-destructive attacks or sternly written letters. You could hold someone responsible for what their cohabitor did, but this would only deter people who were compassionate enough to care about the fate of someone they cannot ever interact with - and, if they picked each other instead of being arranged, chose on the basis of not particularly desiring to ever interact with them again. (You don't pick your friends as cohabitors: you pick people whose company you don't care for with comparable danger tolerances and cosmetic features you want to include when you have your bodies conglomerated.)

Also, they don't sleep, so "place of residence" dissolves for most people. They have typical hangouts, storage lockers, clubhouses and favorite restaurants and rental kitchens - but why bother maintaining an entire house? You don't need a secure place in which to sleep; your cohabitor will look after your body while you're unconscious. Medical decisions are also made a lot simpler by the magic system, although they don't completely go away and there's probably some plot to be had there.

Most people would probably adopt cosmetic markers, but how required these would be would certainly vary; I think your expectation here would be a reasonable way for one society to operate but too sweeping for all. This isn't how we treat identical twins, who, while uncommon, are still a known feature of the real world. I look a lot like my sister to the point where one time I walked into her school and six of her friends mistook me for her; we were not then obliged to choose distinct ritual scarves and wear them at all times.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 03 September 2012 06:39:24PM 3 points [-]

Cohabitors could also pressure each other with rewards, and with threatening to withhold rewards.

I'm not sure about the lack of residences. A storage locker isn't the same thing as having your stuff conveniently arranged for use.

Comment author: Alicorn 03 September 2012 08:25:39PM 1 point [-]

Well, houses are at least a great deal more optional. I'm imagining them as something of a status symbol.

Comment author: [deleted] 03 September 2012 11:04:45PM 2 points [-]

This isn't how we treat identical twins

IIRC, in some cultures (e.g. mid-20th-century Italy) they did the opposite, i.e. they dressed their twin children identically.

Comment author: Kindly 03 September 2012 03:22:11PM 3 points [-]

Each personality owns a bracelet with a combination lock. To prove you're you, you unlock your bracelet. This is basically the password system, but localized, and now you just have to worry about making combination locks tamper-proof.

Comment author: RolfAndreassen 03 September 2012 03:03:35AM 3 points [-]

The first thing that occurs to me is to decentralise the database, which incidentally is rather a computer-ish concept. Each person designates two or more Keyphrase Holders, with a separate password for each. For low-security situations, they have to give their passphrase to one KH; for maximum security, they have to convince all of them. Ten or a dozen passwords should not be beyond anyone's memorisation capabilities in a world without shiny Internet distractions, and the KH can write them down - this gives you a lot of different DSP-DPs instead of one big one. Any given KH may be suborned or have his database broken into, but by the time you get up to a dozen or so that is unlikely.

Obviously this works best if you don't have to physically drag the KH to the prison cell, or whatever, before you let the innocent one out.

Comment author: Randaly 03 September 2012 05:47:08AM 1 point [-]

To make this easier to memorize and more secure, you could have there be a much larger number of KHs. Their job is to be KHs; their identities are kept secret even from each other. Each KH has a certain property about the person's password that they learn- e.g. its length, the number of vowels, the number of times the letter "a" appears minus the number of times a letter appears, etc. However, they don't know the password itself; they only know the person's answer to the question. When a person wants to be released, a certain number of KH's, randomly selected, large enough that correct guesses or collaboration is unlikely, and all wearing hoods, are summoned to the person's cell to figure out their identity.

You'd need to ensure that, following an incorrect guess, the same KH isn't used again- or that the innocent person picks a new password. (Propagating password changes would be terrible- it would make sense to have very severe punishments for claiming to be another person. The first time would be standard jail processing- everybody innocent would need to go down a line of KH's and tell them their name and the answer. This also highlights the main weakness of any possible system- the need to have verified who is who when dealing with the initial passwords, since criminals would presumably immediately go to sleep following crimes, or claim to have just woken up.)

Comment author: Salutator 03 September 2012 10:09:29PM 2 points [-]

Can they use quill and parchent?

If so, the usual public key algorithms could be encoded into something like a tax form, i.e. something like "...51. Subtract the number on line 50 from the number on line 49 and write the result in here:__ ...500. The warden should also have calculated the number on line 499. Burn this parchent."

Of course there would have to be lots of error checks. ("If line 60 doesn't match line 50 you screwed up. If so, redo everything from line 50 on.")

To make it practical, each warden/non-prisoner-pair would do a Diffie-Hellman exchange only once. That part would take a day or two. After establishing a shared secret the daily authentication would be done by a hash, which probably could be done in half an hour or less.

Of course most people would have no clue why those forms work, they would just blindly follow the instructions, which for each line would be doable with primary school math.

The wardens would probably spend large parts of their shifts precalculating hashes for prisoners still asleep, so that several prisoners could do their get-out work at the same time. Or maybe they would do the crypto only once a month or so and normally just tell the non-prisoners their passwords for the next day every time they come in.

Comment author: Alicorn 04 September 2012 06:33:24AM 1 point [-]

I don't think that I understand how this works, which has a meta-level drawback...

Comment author: khafra 04 September 2012 04:36:49PM 3 points [-]

You might have better expository skills than Salutator, and people love learning esoteric things about mysterious professions in the midst of fiction. Diffie-Helman relies on certain properties of math in prime modulus groups, but understanding those properties isn't necessary just to do DH. It only takes primary-school level math abilities to follow the example on Wikipedia (and note that, if nobody has computers, you don't need a 2048 bit modulus.

Comment author: Emile 03 September 2012 04:51:35PM 2 points [-]

Give everybody training in a particular skill during their childhood: Juggling, acrobacy, calligraphy, drawing, playing a particular instrument - or even something more esoteric like doing figures with a Yoyo or a Diabolo, or doing pool tricks, or tricks with a socker ball; anyway something require a good amount of motor skills and training; and also make sure that no cohabitor pair has skills that are too similar (like calligraphy and drawing, or acrobacy and soccer tricks, or the violin and the bass).

Then have a taboo against learning those skills outside the "official" (or religious) context in childhood (for example: being seen training for them is a crime, the props can't be found outside special temples, etc.).

Comment author: Mitchell_Porter 03 September 2012 04:38:59AM 2 points [-]

Everyone is born with a true name that they intuitively know but can't say, and they also have a unique soul-color. And there are special glow-stones that you can think your true-name at, which will then glow the same as the soul-color of the person with that name.

Comment author: Alicorn 03 September 2012 04:40:37AM 4 points [-]

I'd rather not solve the problem by adding magic that doesn't fit into the existing system. Especially suspiciously convenient magic.

Comment author: TheOtherDave 03 September 2012 03:42:46AM 2 points [-]

Physiological correlates to anxiety in response to known personality-specific trauma?

Comment author: Pentashagon 11 September 2012 04:13:14AM *  1 point [-]

You need to think about one-way functions (hashes) and trapdoor one-way functions (public key algorithms). There are some additional issues that arise like nonces to thwart replay attacks and the level of protection individuals can be expected to give to secret keys.

Also, even without explicit mathematics the universe will presumably have a concept of entropy and conservation of something, even if it's just conservation of magical energy. If you can come up with a plausible problem that magic can solve given a lot of expended magical energy but can be solved much more easily with the knowledge of a secret, then you can build a challenge-response identify proof so long as it's not easy to steal the secret by watching the demonstration. If additionally it's very hard to derive the secret from the demonstration of its knowledge you probably have the power of a public key system.

Not all the following problems require magic to implement, and many of them actually benefit from not having a knowledge of mathematics and algorithms, since most of these are not cryptographically secure.

  • Have each person construct an elaborate puzzle out of oddly shaped objects that can be packed into a small finite volume in only one way (the knapsack problem)
  • Each person constructs a (large) set of sticks (or metal rods, or whatever) of varying lengths, of which a subset add up to a standard length like a meter (the subset sum problem)
  • Society forms a hierarchical tree of secret handshakes so that each person only has to remember, say, 100 secret handshakes and the tree only has to be log_100 (N) tall so the courts can just subpoena a logarithmic number of individuals to verify handshakes between any two arbitrary people. Obviously any one of your 100 acquaintances can impersonate you, so two or more distinct trees would at least require collusion.
  • Any magical item that only functions for its "owner".
  • A magical "hash function", like a petronus or an aura, that is unique to every individual (not body) and can't be faked. Producing it would be an effective identifier.

Lastly, I should point out that very few "normal" people in the situation you describe would be able to achieve cryptographic security anyway. I can (barely) memorize a passphrase with 128-bit entropy (using diceware, so I'm certain it actually has 128 bits), and even that's not quite enough to choose a secure secret key for Elliptic Curve DSA. And it would have to only be memorized and never written down anywhere, and only computed on trusted hardware (who the sleep-twin could modify to their heart's content while I slept). So, yeah, Magic.

Comment author: saturn 03 September 2012 11:25:01PM *  1 point [-]

Maybe you could adapt this implicit memory-based authentication scheme into a board game format similar to Mastermind.

Comment author: gwern 04 September 2012 11:46:03PM 1 point [-]

Recognition memory is actually even cooler than implicit memory, I thought, and can contain quite a bit of information (as far as I could tell, working through Shannon's theorem): http://www.gwern.net/Spaced%20repetition#fn63

Dunno how it would work in this setting, though, unless the personalities share visual recognition.

Comment author: Emile 03 September 2012 04:31:49PM 1 point [-]

A few possibilities:

A clockwork Analytical engine / Enigma machine, that does something equivalent to public key verification (though I assume you don't want that kind of machine either).

In each city is a temple of the Sigils, in which are stored the Sigils of people, in public view. The Sigils are like intricate signatures drawn on clay tablets; but they are made on a special clay, Sigil Clay, that dries in about a minute, and changes color depending on the pressure you apply to it, the heat (depending of whether you're touching it with a stylus or with your fingers), and how dry it is. Sigil Priests know hundreds of drawing techniques, and when an alternate pair is created, each person will be taught a few techniques to apply to his drawing, with no overlap between the alternates (so it should be quite hard for someone to reproduce his alternate's Sigil). Being able to draw one's Sigil is generally considered a proof of identity, and since only the Sigil Priests know how to make Sigil Clay, one has little opportunity to practice drawing someone else's Sigil (not to mention that it's of course considered a grave crime).

For the prisonner's case, why not having the "day" persona return to prison to sleep and give a new passphrase short (randomly generated with a special set of dice) to the guard, and when he wakes up and wants to get out, he must give the same passphrase (if he gets it wrong, he is lightly punished and must wait at least 30 minutes before trying again.

This is a weird and interesting premise!

Comment author: [deleted] 03 September 2012 03:32:14PM 1 point [-]

And all the adults share bodies (generally, one body has two people in it). One's asleep (insensate, not forming memories about what's going on, and not in any sort of control over the body) and one's awake (in control, forming memories, experiencing what's going on) at any given time.

So basically the Cherubs in Homestuck.

Comment author: Randaly 03 September 2012 05:56:25AM *  1 point [-]

Why use cryptography? If I understand the problem statement correctly, there's a simpler solution. When a prisoner wants to go to sleep, they signal and a guard walks over and renders them unconscious, presumably using drugs. Since we know that nobody would go to sleep outside of jail, you can figure out who is who by counting the number of times they've been sedated.

(This is vulnerable to troubles telling who is who at the start, but so is any knowledge-based method. This is also vulnerable to people falling asleep outside, but so is any knowledge based method. It's also fairly dangerous, given that most drugs capable of rendering somebody unconscious are dangerous; however, giving guards some training and then handwaving away or saying the society isn't concerned by the (minimal) danger sounds reasonable. It assumes certain things about going to sleep and drugs that may not be true in this universe, but it at least sounds reasonable- and this is fiction.)

Comment author: Alicorn 03 September 2012 06:08:02AM 3 points [-]

Sedatives would cause physical sleep, and the reason people share bodies in this world is because having your body be asleep will cause your soul to be eaten by insubstantial demons. Sleeping-while-someone-else-pilots-your-body is safe in large part because it cuts off interventions regarding your soul from outside sources - demons, drugs, magic, etc.

Also, this method relies on cooperative criminals, not just cooperative cohabitors-with-criminals. The criminal has an incentive to make being in jail really inconvenient for their cohabitor - by, for instance, not notifying anyone before going to sleep. They're already in jail, so making their cohabitor mad at them has limited power to make their situation worse, but if the guards wind up having to imprison the cohabitor too to be safe, the cohabitor might work on ways to get out.

Comment author: Emile 03 September 2012 04:39:58PM 2 points [-]

I suppose reallocating cohabitors (say, criminals with criminals) is out of the question?

Comment author: Alicorn 03 September 2012 05:01:14PM *  2 points [-]

Moving one person in with another person is already very magically challenging; this might not be strictly impossible but your average community would not have access to even one person who could do it. Perhaps this would be a good last resort on a national level for anyone with a demonstrated propensity to actually escape, or whose escape would be particularly dreadful.

Comment author: shminux 03 September 2012 05:15:16AM 1 point [-]

Is handwriting style per person or per body?

Comment author: Alicorn 03 September 2012 05:21:33AM 5 points [-]

Per person, but most people in ordinary day-to-day life will have plenty of opportunity to observe and practice mimicking their cohabitor's handwriting if they feel like working on that - they can't talk to each other directly, so they leave notes ("watch out for our left foot, it's still tender, I dropped something on it", "so how are you doing, what are you up to", "we're pregnant").

Comment author: gwern 04 September 2012 11:40:29PM 1 point [-]

So handwriting is secure between a pair; then all you need is some sort of authentication. Why not use a very simple random number generator? Each member of a pair knows it, of course, and they occasionally set up fresh seeds. Each day is one iteration. To 'sign' a message, one simply writes down today's random number afterwards. (You said handwriting is secure, so you don't worry about someone tampering with the message and making an authentic number testify to a faked message.)

What RNG? Dunno. Blum Blum Shub has a hilarious name, but the multiplying is a bit painful. Depending on how much accuracy you want, you could make up your own simple recurrence (imagine a list of 5 integers, which shift each day, and the first is defined by the sum of the last two modulo 5). But it turns out geeks have already discussed PRNGs you can do with mental arithmetic:

For the looks of them, at least one suggestion should work for you.

Comment author: ciphergoth 04 September 2012 03:18:18PM 11 points [-]
Comment author: [deleted] 03 September 2012 12:21:01PM *  11 points [-]

The waning of the nuclear family by Razib Khan

But this is also a case where we can look to the past and other societies for lessons in terms of how it will impact our society. Though I have never personally lived in this sort of family, except to some extent between the ages of two and four (and so my memories are minimal), I know of the downsides from family lore and gossip. Just watch a Bollywood film as ethnography. From what I can gather a linear increase in the number of family members within a household does not entail a linear increase in the family drama. On the contrary, there is a very rapid increase, as inter-personal relationships become much more elaborated (this especially is true when you multiply grades of relatedness). A far greater proportion of one’s life is taken up by maintenance of household relationships. The American nuclear family is to some extent on the atomized side, but extended families tend toward hyper-sociality.

And I believe that this has consequences. The shift back toward extended families is due to the exigency of post-bubble America. But we may be on the way to a more thoroughgoing shift in the nature of American society, and how we relate to each other. The hyper-mobile nuclear family in the post-World War II America produced a particular kind of culture. What it lacked in family values beyond the core nuclear unit, it made up for in a commitment to civil society which could fill the breach. In contrast, societies which are ‘familialist’ often lack civil institutions and organizations because tight clusters of families can provide what in other societies would be part of the public good.

What I am proposing here is that or most Americans multi-generational living is a means toward maintaining the lifestyle and values which they hold dear, but the shift itself may change that lifestyle and those values in deep and fundamental ways. The initial trigger here is economic, with the first-order causal effects sociological. But the downstream effects may also be economic, as Americans become less mobile and more familialist. What can we expect? Look abroad, and look to the past.

This is a good example of why I think it makes much more sense to frame history in terms of "value change" rather than holding notions of "moral progress".

Comment author: [deleted] 03 September 2012 03:20:01PM 1 point [-]

That's a pretty good example of that, yeah. It's also interesting to note how values, or at least the potential for them, may be conserved across long-term shifts: American culture is notably fixated on geneaology compared to societies where the extended family is a socioeconomic norm; the motivation to have a wider familial context is there, even in families and individuals who are quite comfy with the nuclear pattern. I'm not suggesting it's a causal influence that trumps the economics driving the push for extended families, but I can't help seeing it as influential. The demographic transition and decline of extended families in the US wasn't that long ago...

Comment author: JohnWittle 04 September 2012 01:39:45AM *  10 points [-]

I own a personal server running Debian Squeeze which has a 1Gb/s symmetric connection and 15TB per month bandwidth.

I am offering free shell accounts to lesswrongers, with one contingency:

1) You'll be placed in a usergroup, 'lw', as opposed to various other usergroups for various other communities I belong to, which will be in other usergroups. Anything that ends up in /var/log is fair game. I intend to make lots of graphs and post them on all the communities I belong to. There won't be any personally identifying data in anything that ends up publicly.

Your shell account will start out with a disk quota of 5g, and if you need more you can ask me. I'm totally cool with you seeding your torrents. I do not intend to terminate accounts at any point for inactivity or otherwise; you can reasonably expect to have access for at least a year, probably longer.

Query me on freenode's irc (JohnWittle), or send me an email. johnwittle@gmail.com.

Also, while the results of my analysis are likely to go in Discussion, I was wondering if this offering of free service itself might go in discussion. I asked in IRC and was told that advertisements are seriously frowned upon and that I would lose all my karma.

Comment author: Blackened 09 September 2012 11:30:50AM *  8 points [-]

I am very confused right now.

A few years ago, I learned that multivitamins are ineffective, according to research. At that point, I have heard of the benefits of many of them, they were individually praised like some would praise anything that's good enough to take by itself, so I was thinking that multivitamins should be something ultra-effective that only irrational people won't take. When I learned they were ineffective, I hypothesized that vitamins in pills simply don't get processed well.

Recently, I was reading a few articles about Vitamin D - I thought I should definitely have it, because the sources were rather scientific and were praising it a lot. I got it in the form of softgels, because gwern suggested it. When they arrived, I saw it's very similar to pills, so I thought it might be ineffective and decided to take another look at Wikipedia/Multivitamins. Then I got very confused.

Apparently, the multivitamins DO get processed! And yes, they ARE found to have no significant effect (even in double-blind placebo trials), But at the same time, we have pages saying that 50-60% of the people are deprived from Vitamin D and that it seriously reduces the risk of cancer, among with other things (including a heart disease). Can anyone explain what's going on?

Comment author: gwern 10 September 2012 09:39:37PM 3 points [-]

I don't really follow. A multivitamin != vitamin D, so it's no surprise that they might do different things. If a multivitamin had no vitamin D in it, or if it had vitamin D in different doses, or if it had substances which interacted with vitamin D (such as calcium), or if it had substances which had negative effects which outweigh the positive (such as vitamin A?), we could well expect differing results.

In this case, all of those are true to varying extents. Some multivitamins I've had contained no vitamin D. The last multivitamin I was taking both contains vitamins used in the negative trials and also some calcium; the listed vitamin D dosage was ~400IU, while I take >10x as much now (5000IU).

Is that unsatisfactory?

Comment author: Blackened 11 September 2012 06:47:38PM 2 points [-]

That would only makes sense if vitamin D is the only one that has any real significant effects or if the other ones who do, are too included in small dosages (this doesn't seem improbable at all).

I remember seeing studies which doubt that vitamin C would help healing from common cold. No wonder if most other are as insignificant.

Also, just checked some pills of vitamins (for hair, skin and nails) I bought 1-2 years ago. It says "take 3 times a day" and it has 100 IU of vitamin D. It's also apparently 50% of RDA - most other vitamins/minerals in it are up to 200-250%, and my vitamin D pills are 1250% RDA. Mystery solved, I guess.

Comment author: Epiphany 29 September 2012 01:11:50AM *  1 point [-]

Supplements have quality issues often. You'd be surprised what they get away with. Sometimes the coating doesn't digest, so the nutrients aren't absorbed. Sometimes they use the wrong form of the substance because it is cheaper. Sometimes they're even contaminated with lead. I only buy vitamins that have been tested by an independent lab. So far, the best brands I've found were Solgar and Jarrow.

Comment author: dbaupp 10 September 2012 08:20:05PM 1 point [-]

(Links are created by writing [ text ] then ( url ), you seem to have used parentheses for both.)

Comment author: gwern 10 September 2012 10:16:58PM 7 points [-]

People may be amused by this Bitcoin extortion attempt; needless to say, I declined. (This comment represents part of my public commitment to not pay.)

Comment author: [deleted] 04 September 2012 10:58:00AM *  7 points [-]

Precision First by L. Kimberly Epting on Inside Higher Ed was an interesting read for me.

Indeed, many of my students have revealed this to me when complaining about points not earned on test questions; they have told me, in no uncertain terms, that they have learned to look at the topic of an essay question and then “just write pretty much everything [they] know about that topic.” This seems reasonable if the test prompt is “tell me everything you know about X,” but I can tell you the exact number of times I have written such an item: zero. Truthfully, I recognize I had a similar history, at least until advanced courses in college -- filling up the space on the page with at least related information generally produced favorable consequences.

Students also often ask if items on my tests are “trick questions.” My standard answer is that I never intend items to be “trick questions”; however, they are intended to be specific, precise questions. It occurs to me this might be an important revelation from them: focusing on specificity in reading and answering a short-answer/essay item is so unfamiliar to them, they find it suspect when required to do so. And they are genuinely confused when they receive no credit for filling up the space on the page with accurate, related information that nonetheless never addresses the actual prompt or question. This alarms me.

Training people to guess the teacher's password has consequences.

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 03 September 2012 09:45:02AM *  7 points [-]

Stanislas Dehaene's and Laurent Cohen's (2007) Cultural Recycling of Cortical Maps has an interesting argument about how the ability to read might have developed by taking over visual circuits specialized for biologically more relevant tasks, and how this may constrain different writing systems:

According to the neuronal recycling hypothesis, cortical biases constraint visual word recognition to a specific anatomical site, but they may even have exerted a powerful constraint, during the evolution of writing systems, on the very form that these systems take, thus reducing the span of cross-cultural variations. Consistent with this view, Changizi and collaborators have recently demonstrated two remarkable cross-cultural universals in the visual properties of writing systems (Changizi and Shimojo, 2005; Changizi et al., 2006). First, in all alphabets, letters are consistently composed of an average of about three strokes per character (Changizi and Shimojo, 2005). This number may be tentatively related to the visual system’s hierarchical organization, where increases in the complexity of the neurons’ preferred features are accompanied by a 2- to 3-fold increase in receptive field size (Rolls, 2000). Inferotemporal neurons are thought to gain their sensitivity to complex shapes by pooling over neurons coding for simpler shapes at the immediately earlier level (Brincat and Connor, 2004; Serre et al., 2007). Assuming that this pooling occurs within a radius of about three receptive fields, elementary letter shape would only be recognized as combinations of about three simpler strokes, thus accounting for Changizi’s ‘‘magic number’’ (Changizi and Shimojo, 2005). This account might be extended to other levels of the word recognition system (Dehaene, 2007a; Dehaene et al., 2005). Upstream of the single-letter level, the elementary strokes used in the world’s writing systems may themselves be composed of approximately three line segments. Downstream of it, it may be suggested that writing makes frequent use of combinations of two to four letters as morphemes (prefixes, suffixes, or word roots). Chinese characters also typically combine two to four functional subelements (Ding et al., 2004). These predictions, however, still await quantitative confirmation.

A second cross-cultural universal is that, in all writing systems, topological intersections of contours (e.g., T, Y, L, D) recur with a universal frequency distribution (Changizi et al., 2006). Remarkably, these intersections are not typically observed in random images, but occur with the same frequency in natural images (Changizi et al., 2006). Many of these intersections signal ‘‘nonaccidental properties’’ that denote important and invariant connection and occlusion relations (Biederman, 1987) and are already encoded in monkey infero-temporal cortex (Kayaert et al., 2005). Thus, the suggestion is that, while the occipitotemporal cortex could not evolve for reading, the shapes used by our writing systems were submitted to a cultural evolution for faster learnability by matching the elementary intersections already used in any primate visual system for object and scene recognition.

This is relevant for discussions about superintelligent AI in that it helps reinforce the case that there are cognitive constraints in our brains that are hard (if not impossible) to overcome, and that a mind which could custom-tailor new cognitive modules for specific skills, unburdened by the need to recycle previously-evolved neural circuitry, could become qualitatively better at them than humans are.

Comment author: [deleted] 01 September 2012 09:16:00AM *  17 points [-]

I believe the correct term is "straw individual" by Yvain is well worth reading.

Comment author: Viliam_Bur 02 September 2012 10:08:21AM 4 points [-]

That you for linking to this article; I enjoy seeing other people making my point better than I could. Here are some additional thoughts:

My first thought after reading the linked article was "pick your battles", especially as expressed in Paul Graham's "What You Can't Say". It sounds like the exact opposite of "Atheism+", and yet they both seem to make a lot of sense... well, how is that possible?

More generally: You hold opinions X and Y, and they are both important to you. Another person agrees with X and disagrees with Y. When should you treat this person as an ally, and when should you treat them as an enemy? Let's suppose that both X and Y are your core values, so you can't decide by "which one is more important to you".

Seems to me that when X is endangered, then each proponent of X is a gift, and you don't look the gift horse in the mouth. On the other hand, when X is safe -- it may be still a minority belief, but it gains momentum irreversibly -- it is strategic to associate X with Y as much as possible, to transfer some momentum to Y; declaring "X but not Y" people as the "enemies of the true X (which includes Y)" is the obvious way to do it. You can afford to alienate the few "X but not Y" people if X will win without them too.

This was a strategic analysis in general, but now let's look at these specific X and Y; namely: What's could be possibly wrong about asking people to be compassionate and reasonable, and not be a bully???

Well, it depends on your specific definitions or "compassionate", "reasonable" and "bully". Yes, the devil is in the details. As long as the vocal people are allowed to redefine these words to mean exactly what they need them to mean in a given moment, and especially if "surely, you said A, but we all know that's just a code for B" arguments are accepted, it allows to relabel each dissent as bullying, and to ostracize given people not because they disagree, but simply because their behavior is interpreted as ethically unacceptable. (Even pointing out this mechanism will be problematic, because we all know that only a bully would expend their energy to defend bullies.)

Comment author: Nic_Smith 01 September 2012 04:32:09PM 4 points [-]

A dramatic understatement -- I found this to be far superior to WAitW, as it's more concrete and offers reasonable advice to its readers. By being more systematic, it strikes me as a better illustration of WAitA than the actual WAitA article.

Comment author: [deleted] 01 September 2012 09:33:12AM 3 points [-]

Also this comment by Kaj_Sotala:

If you haven't read that article yet, you probably should, since the rest of this post will make very little sense without it.

Actually, although I can't perfectly emulate a person who hasn't read that post, I believe that this one can be understood just fine without it. The content of this post could be summed up with "the things you associate with this particular -ism aren't going to be the same things that everyone associate with this -ism", which can be easily understood even without knowing what the WAitW is.

I actually suspect that you shouldn't even mention the WAitW, because the WAitW implies that the other person is employing motivated cognition and throwing any poor argument they can come up with at you in order to shut you up. In contrast, here they might just genuinely have a different mapping between verbal and conceptual space than you do.

Comment author: John_Maxwell_IV 01 September 2012 10:58:28PM 2 points [-]

Has it occurred to anyone that worst-argument-in-the-world type thinking is probably a result of the affect heuristic?

Comment author: [deleted] 08 September 2012 07:23:26AM 6 points [-]

There was much skepticism about my lottery story in the last open thread. Readers should be aware, I sent photographic proof to Mitch Porter by e-mail.

As promised, I made substantial donations to the following two causes:

Brain Preservation Fund Kim Suozzi Fund

Please confirm my name on the list of donors Brain Preservation General Fund

I'm shortly going to be flying out to the EU to work on life extension causes, see my my blog for information: 27 European Union nations in 27 weeks

Comment author: gwern 08 September 2012 03:47:51PM 4 points [-]

Please confirm my name on the list of donors Brain Preservation General Fund

I see 'M J GEDDES' listed. Well done!

Out of curiosity, how much did you donate? (If it was >$500, I forgive you all the crap on OB and SL4; actions are more important than words.)

Comment author: [deleted] 09 September 2012 02:03:01AM 2 points [-]

Well, I've opted to focus the bulk of my philanthropy on the 'Methuselah Foundation'. I joined the 300 and I've now pledged $US 25 000. My statement is here:

http://www.mfoundation.org/?pn=donors

Powerful new forces are in play as the board game for Singularity takes a dramatic turn!

Comment author: gwern 09 September 2012 02:15:32AM 2 points [-]

Received '85.00'?

Comment author: katydee 13 September 2012 09:08:37PM 0 points [-]

The '300' pledge is for $25000 over a span of 10 years.

Comment author: gwern 13 September 2012 09:15:10PM 0 points [-]

That's still $2500 for the first installment, not $85.

Comment author: katydee 13 September 2012 09:49:43PM 0 points [-]

They break it down further until it's like $3 per day, so I don't know what their installment plan is.

Comment author: [deleted] 02 September 2012 09:17:55AM *  6 points [-]

List of public drafts on LessWrong

I've found the practice of providing open drafts of possible future articles in the open threads and relevant comment sections has proven quite useful and well received in the past. I've decided to now make and maintain a list of them. If anyone else has made similar posts, please share them with me, and I'll add them to the list.

Konkvistador

Related to: Old material

Comment author: bogus 02 September 2012 01:37:42PM 1 point [-]

This should probably be a page on the LW wiki.

Comment author: pragmatist 01 September 2012 01:09:59PM *  6 points [-]

I've decided I should educate myself about LW-specific decision theories. I've downloaded Eliezer's paper on timeless decision theory and I'm reading through it. I'm wondering if there are similar consolidated presentations of updateless and ambient decision theory. Has anyone attempted to write these theories up for academic publication? Or is the best place to learn about them still the blog posts linked on the wiki?

Comment author: [deleted] 09 September 2012 12:42:09PM 5 points [-]

School isn't about learning, SMBC edition.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 01 September 2012 08:01:13PM *  5 points [-]

Ten minute video about human evolution and digestion which argues plausibly that we're very well-evolved to eat starch-- specifically tubers and seeds, though we also have remarkable flexibility in what we eat.

I thought coyotes have at least as wide a range of foods as we do, though.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 08 September 2012 12:18:34PM 4 points [-]
Comment author: [deleted] 06 September 2012 03:47:21PM *  4 points [-]

Marginal Revolution University

Yet another Online University this one launched on Marginal Revolution. 2012 has been a remarkable ride for Online Education and in many respects is a start of a test to see which theory of what formal education is actually for is correct. Will software and the internet disrupt education like it did the record business?

Amusing commentary by gwern:

Hm, economists not outsourcing to any of the specialists in this very active growing marketplace, and doing an online education webservice in-house? The irony! It burns!

Comment author: Kawoomba 04 September 2012 06:24:44AM *  4 points [-]

Short story about the Turing Test, entertaining read.

Consider two versions of that story, with one having the line "At that point, finally, he let me out of the tank." appended.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 01 September 2012 04:32:56PM *  10 points [-]

It has become increasingly clear over the last year or so that planets can in fact form around highly metal poor stars. Example planet. This both increases the total number of planets to expect and increase the chance that planets formed around the very oldest stars. (Younger stars have higher metal content). One argument against Great Filter concerns is that it might be that life cannot arise much younger than it did on Earth because stars much older than our sun would not have high metal content. This seems to seriously undermine this argument.

How much should this do to our estimates for whether to expect heavy Filtration in front of us? My immediate reaction is that it does make future filtration more likely but not by much since even if planets could form, a lack of carbon and other heavier elements would still make formation of life and its evolution into complicated creatures difficult. Is this analysis accurate?

Comment author: moridinamael 01 September 2012 05:34:29PM *  10 points [-]

I have a Great Filter related thought which doesn't address your question directly but, hey, it's the Open Thread.

My thesis here is that the presence of abundant fossil energy on earth is the primary thing that has enabled our technological civilization, and abundant fossil energy may be far less common than intelligent life.

On top of all the other qualities of Earth which allowed it to host its profusion of life, I'll point out a few more facts related specifically to fossil energy, which I haven't seen in any discussions of Fermi's Paradox or the Great Filter.

  • Life on Earth happens to be carbon-based, and carbon-based life, when heated in an anoxic environment, turns into oil, gas and coal.

  • Earth is roughly 2/3 covered in oceans (this figure has varied over geologic time), a fact with significant consequences to deposition of dead algae, erosion, and sedimentation.

  • Earth possesses a mass, size, and age such that the temperature a few kilometers below the surface may be hundreds of degrees C, while the surface temperature remains "Goldilocks."

  • Earth has a conveniently oxidizing atmosphere in which hydrocarbons burn easily, but not so oxidizing that it prevents stable carbon-based life. Quite a narrow window, really.

  • Life has existed on Earth for billions of years, and thus algae and other life forms have been dying in oceans and swamps and accumulating subsurface hydrocarbon source material, for billions of years.

Put all this together and realize that the formation of oil, gas, and coal happens only in rare and specific circumstances even on Earth. We seem to have a lot of these resources today, but it took billions of years for them to accumulate in the quantities we now find.

If any one of the above facts were not true, we would not have fossil energy - coal, oil, gas, plastics, lubricants - we would not have an industrial revolution, and we would not have a technological civilization.

Many of the facts on the above list have to be true simply to enable fire, as in, wood fire, imagine what human history would look like if the oxygen content of Earth's atmosphere was too low to sustain wood fire?

Anyways, maybe people have discussed this before, but I wasn't able to Google anything up.

Comment author: [deleted] 03 September 2012 07:02:35AM 7 points [-]

Frankly, I'm wondering if the whole idea of exponential growth is just short cultural time horizons applied to the implications of fossil fuels for energy production, which touched off the Industrial Revolution. The Hubbert Peak holds, although coming out the other side of it resembles a gradual stepping-downward with its own local spikes and valleys (much as there are spikes and valleys in growth and use now, despite a steady upward trend). Fossil fuels still supply over three quarters of the world's energy demand; there hasn't been a nuclear renaissance so far and as much as someone always wants to boost pebble bed, travelling-wave or thorium reactors, innovation and growth for nuclear both seem quite limited on the balance. That might not seem like a big deal now (surely it could happen, right?) but what if that situation does not change appreciably, and world civilization starts transiting down the other side of of the curve, taking a few centuries to do it? What if we never do figure out FAI, or MNT, or fusion, or whatnot? What if that's because the noise of society, geopolitics and history-in-general just don't allow for them to come to pass?

What if the the answer to Fermi's paradox is simply "You'd have to mistake the infrastructural equivalent of a blood sugar rush for an inexorable trend in technological development to even wonder why nobody's zipping around in relativistic spacecraft or building Dyson spheres?" What if the problem is just short time horizons and poor understanding of context?

Comment author: CellBioGuy 24 December 2012 04:36:39AM *  1 point [-]

What if the the answer to Fermi's paradox is simply "You'd have to mistake the infrastructural equivalent of a blood sugar rush for an inexorable trend in technological development to even wonder why nobody's zipping around in relativistic spacecraft or building Dyson spheres?" What if the problem is just short time horizons and poor understanding of context?

This. I've been searching for a way to articulate this idea for quite some time, and this is the best way I've seen it stated.

The last few centuries are potentially extremely atypical in human history. We have three generations of economists raised on exponentiation to think it is normal, and a series of technological advances that almost all require highly concentrated energy in ways that are seldom appreciated. When you think about it too, it would appear that something like an oil well is the most concentrated source of easily captured energy in the solar system - where else do you get such a huge amount of highly reduced matter next to such highly oxidized gas? With the interface between them requiring something as simple as a drill and furnace? Per unit of infrastructure and effort that is an incredible resource that I honestly doubt you can really improve upon. I have long suspected that reversion towards (through perhaps not all the way to) the mean is far more likely in our future.

Comment author: [deleted] 24 December 2012 07:26:38AM 1 point [-]

This. I've been searching for a way to articulate this idea for quite some time, and this is the best way I've seen it stated.

Thank you. It's still a bit indistinct to me as yet -- I haven't seen many other people talking about it in these terms, except Karl Schroeder (who explores it a bit in his science fiction writing), but I knew something seemed a little funny when the Rare Earth Hypothesis and its pop-sci cousins started growing in popularity among the transhumanist set. It seems like an awful lot of the background ideas about the Fermi Paradox and its implications for anthropics in the core cluster that LW shares go back to an intellectual movement that came to prominence at a time before we'd discovered more than a tiny handful of exoplanets. Now we know there's at least one Earth-sized world around Alpha bloody Centauri and even Tau Ceti of all stars is being proposed as rich in worlds; at this rate I personally expect to learn about the probable existence of another biosphere around a star within 100 ly, within my natural lifetime (though, for the reasons expressed in my comment, I'm doubtful we'd be able to reliably notice another civilization unless they signalled semi-deliberately or we got staggeringly lucky and they have a recognizably-similar fossil fuel "spike" within a similar window, meaning we can catch the light of cities on the night side assuming Sufficiently Powerful Telescopes).

I have long suspected that reversion towards (through perhaps not all the way to) the mean is far more likely in our future.

nod I suspect the future probably looks rather weird to LWian eyes, in this regard -- neither a reversion to the 10th or 17th century for the rest of human existence, nor much like the most common conceptions of it here (namely: UFAI-driven apocalypse vs FAI-driven technorapture). It's hard to tease out the threads that seem most relevant to my budding picture of things, but they look something like: increasing efficiency where it's possible, a gradual net reduction in the stuff economists have been watching grow for the last few generations, some decidedly weirdtopian adaptations in lifestyle that I can only guess at... we've learned so much about automation, efficiency, logistics and soforth and it seems like there's plenty of time to learn a great deal more, such that my brain tries to conjure up visions of a low-energy but surprisingly smart future infrastructure where the world is big again.

Comment author: CellBioGuy 25 December 2012 08:19:55AM *  1 point [-]

Now we know there's at least one Earth-sized world around Alpha bloody Centauri and even Tau Ceti of all stars is being proposed as rich in worlds; at this rate I personally expect to learn about the probable existence of another biosphere around a star within 100 ly, within my natural lifetime

I think the jury is still out on this... on the one hand we are finding huge numbers of planets, and it is likely that our sampling biases are what push us towards finding all these big "super-earths" close to their parent stars (I take issue with that terminology, calling something something of ~5 earth masses 'potentially habitable' or even 'terrestrial' is problematic because we have no experience with planets of that size range in our system and you can't confidently state that most things with that mass would actually necessarily have a surface resembling a rock-to-liquid/gas transition). On the other hand we are finding so many systems that look nothing like ours with compact orbits and arrangements that probably could not have formed that way and thus went through a period of destructive chaos, suggesting that the stability of our system could be an anomaly. I'm waiting on the full several years of Kepler data that should actually be able to detect earth-radius planets at a full AU or so from a star, until then there seem to be too many variables.

though, for the reasons expressed in my comment, I'm doubtful we'd be able to reliably notice another civilization unless they signalled semi-deliberately or we got staggeringly lucky and they have a recognizably-similar fossil fuel "spike" within a similar window, meaning we can catch the light of cities on the night side assuming Sufficiently Powerful Telescopes

I mostly agree. I actually find the 'great silence' not particularly puzzling - the only things we have reliably excluded are things like star system scale engineering, and massive radio beacons that either put out large percentages of a planet's solar input out in the form of omnidirectional radio or ping millions of nearby stars with directional beams on a regular basis. When you consider the vast space of options where such grand things don't happen, for reasons other than annihilation, you get a different picture. We couldn't detect our own omnidirectional radiation more than a fraction of a light-year away, and new technologies are actually decreasing it of late. And how many directional messages have we sent out explicitly aimed at other star systems? A dozen? And they would need directional antennas to be picked up. What are the odds that two points in space that don't know of each other's existence would first have one point their message in the right direction, and then have the second one look in the correct direction at the right time? Even if you assume there are many thousands of sources in our galaxy (which I think could be a wild overestimate filter or no given the history of terrestrial life), that puts the nearest one hundreds of light years away in a volume containing millions of stars. Even if they have an order of magnitude or three more effort being put out into sending messages, that still isn't much given the sheer volume. A full galaxy just wouldn't look different from an empty one to beings like us that have been looking less than a century, if the proposed grand destiny of intelligent life proves to be a 'sugar rush' even in the absence of reversion to the mean. (Such a reversion would pretty well certainly still include radio in our toolkit or the toolkit of whoever else was smart enough to figure out electrodynamics, so such a civilization could still be detectable - although what a reversion could lack is the concentrated wealth to build and maintain lots of fifty meter dishes and use them for, effectively, stargazing.)

I suspect the future probably looks rather weird to LWian eyes, in this regard -- neither a reversion to the 10th or 17th century for the rest of human existence, nor much like the most common conceptions of it here (namely: UFAI-driven apocalypse vs FAI-driven technorapture).

I would say what it is most likely to resemble is, simply, history. Civilizations rise and fall over centuries (not overnight!) and ours is probably no exception, even if the endpoint might not be as low as past troughs. There are eras of prosperity and eras of destitution, different in different parts of the world as power structures and ecologies shift. Technologies appear, some of them stick around essentialy forever after they are invented and others, like steam heat and clockwork and factories exporting across an entire continent in ancient Rome, get lost when the context that produced them changes. Most eras produce something new that they can pass on usefully to the future, though what they produce that can be perpetuated in a different context would often be unexpected to those in that era.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 01 September 2012 05:56:38PM 6 points [-]

Earth has a conveniently oxidizing atmosphere in which hydrocarbons burn easily, but not so oxidizing that it prevents stable carbon-based life. Quite a narrow window, really.

The limiting oxygen concentration for most woods is between 14% and 18%. The Earth oxygen concentration is a little over 20% so it does look close. But this is slightly misleading: All that oxygen showed up because carbon based life was releasing it from water and carbon dioxide in photosynthesis. Oxygen using life only showed up after there were dangerously high levels of oxygen. And if the oxygen levels get very high then the photosynthesizers will start to get poisoned and the percentage will go down. So it isn't really likely to have an atmosphere with so much oxygen that it is a problem for carbon life.

But yes, certainly an equilibrium with less oxygen is plausible in which case fire would be close to impossible even if the percentage dropped by only a small amount.

Comment author: evand 01 September 2012 05:49:24PM 13 points [-]

The oxidizing atmosphere is not due to chance. It was created by early life that exhaled oxygen, and killed off its neighbors that couldn't handle it. Hence, I don't think the goldilocks oxygen levels speak much to great filter questions.

Early in civilization, we used wood and charcoal as energy sources. Blacksmithing and cast iron were originally done with wood charcoal. Cast iron is a very important tool in our history of machine tools and hence the industrial revolution. It's possible that we could have carried on without coal, instead using large-scale forestry management or other biomass as our energy source. In the early 1700s there were already environmental concerns about deforestation. They were more related to continued supply of wood for charcoal and hunting grounds than "ecological" concerns, but there were still laws and regulations enacted to deal with the problem.

How many people do we need to support a high-tech civilization? I suspect fewer than we tried it with. It's quite possible that biofuel sources would have produced a high tech civilization, just slower and with fewer people.

Also, note that biofuels can produce all the lubricants and plastics you need just fine. The Fischer-Tropsch process has been implemented on a large scale before.

I think that given all this, you could get the modern metal lathe and the steam engine without fossil fuels. We already harnessed basic water and wind power without fossil fuels. I suspect with modern machine tools you get to electricity and large-scale water and wind power generation, even without fossil fuels. Again, more slowly, and possibly without so many people, but I think you can get there.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 02 September 2012 12:29:53AM 5 points [-]

The oxidizing atmosphere is not due to chance. It was created by early life that exhaled oxygen, and killed off its neighbors that couldn't handle it. Hence, I don't think the goldilocks oxygen levels speak much to great filter questions.

Actually, the neighbors that couldn't handle oxygen got forced underground. They live in the mud under the deep sea, in digestive tracts, etc.

Comment author: evand 02 September 2012 03:12:45AM 4 points [-]

Well, some of their descendants are still alive, yes. But I believe that there was a lot of dying involved in that process. More than I think is implied by the phrase "forced underground".

Comment author: moridinamael 01 September 2012 06:03:56PM 5 points [-]

These are all good points and I don't disagree with you. It probably is worth pointing out that ever since about 1800 our civilization has had "the pedal to the metal" in terms of accelerating our demand for energy, i.e. an exponential rise in energy demand, and that demand has been consistently met and often exceeded - this is why we can afford to fill our personal cars with this precious fuel on a regular basis.

I think that a sufficiently forward-thinking civilization probably could base its energy production around biofuels, but a gallon of gasoline-equivalent would probably cost about a thousand dollars-equivalent. Building a skyscraper would be a project akin to manned space flight. Manned space flight would be completely out of the realm of possibility.

Comment author: [deleted] 02 September 2012 06:37:50AM *  3 points [-]

Building a skyscraper would be a project akin to manned space flight. Manned space flight would be completely out of the realm of possibility.

The more important question would be how hard it would be to get nuclear energy.

Comment author: faul_sname 02 September 2012 03:24:28AM 1 point [-]

but a gallon of gasoline-equivalent would probably cost about a thousand dollars-equivalent.

I find this doubtful, being as ethanol (25 MJ/L) is nowhere near that expensive to create, and is fairly near the energy density of gasoline (35 MJ/L).

Comment author: moridinamael 02 September 2012 04:20:00AM 6 points [-]

Consider the entire economy, though. Let's not assume that ethanol could ever replace fossil fuels at the scale needed for explosive technological growth. the reason pure ethanol is cheap in the modern world is because we have enormous economies of scale producing the necessary feedstocks which rely on trucks and trains and fertilizers, hell, even the energy used to distill the ethanol is typically from fossil fuel.

It's about supply-demand. If, tomorrow, there were no gasoline anymore, the price of ethanol would be astronomical.

Comment author: vi21maobk9vp 02 September 2012 07:42:55AM 2 points [-]

Note, though, that we are talking about much smaller population - so you could spend quite a lot of land per capita on growing both ethanol source and fuel.

Current size of humankind is clearly unsustainable in this mode, of course.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 02 September 2012 02:49:51PM 3 points [-]

With a much smaller population you start losing all sorts of other advantages, especially economies of scale and comparative advantage.

Comment author: evand 02 September 2012 07:27:58PM 2 points [-]

Careful. Economies of scale for quantity million parts don't show up until probably the 20th century. Prior to that, the effect of reduced population size might just be reduced variety. Do you have any idea how many manufacturers of engine lathes there were at the end of the 19th century, for instance? (Hint: more than a couple.)

Comment author: John_Maxwell_IV 01 September 2012 11:10:36PM 4 points [-]

Well, one point is that supposedly there were a lot of societal factors that also had to be in place for the industrial revolution to take place. (Apparently if you lived anywhere but Britain, if you were doing anything cool, the ruling monarch would come along and just take it.) So it's not necessarily just tech.

Another point is that Earth appears to have periodic ice ages, and many/most human civilizations seem to collapse after a while. So sustaining progress over long periods is nontrivial.

Comment author: [deleted] 03 September 2012 07:08:40AM 3 points [-]

Well, one point is that supposedly there were a lot of societal factors that also had to be in place for the industrial revolution to take place.

Environmental ones too. Britain had to be so short of wood and charcoal to burn that using coal in home stoves, even with its nasty byproducts, was preferably to most people going without any source of burnable fuel. The widespread proliferation of coal that followed to meet the demand meant there was plenty of it about to turn to other purposes.

Comment author: Thomas 01 September 2012 06:00:55PM 2 points [-]

Several times more planets could increase the probability of a distant civilization several times, at the most. That is not a lot, if the initial probability is already tiny.

A rocky planet with no metals have a much weaker magnetic field. A civilization without iron and other metals is more difficult as well. Without heavy radioactive isotopes, volcanoes and tectonics is also different or non existent.

May be some other factors, not all against aliens.

Comment author: evand 01 September 2012 05:38:27PM 3 points [-]

I think it's pretty clear that for broad definitions of life, you need carbon or something heavier. It's possible you could substitute boron, but I don't think you can get boron by any process that won't produce carbon as well. You almost certainly need both reducing and oxidizing agents, which means oxygen and hydrogen as the lightest options. There have been proposals of exotic life chemistries, but all the serious ones I've seen substitute heavier atoms like silicon.

The more interesting question is whether you can build more complex life without all the trace elements used on earth. For example, there are plenty of bacteria and fungi that have much lower dependence on heavier metals than multicellular life does, and some simpler multicellular organisms need less than humans do. My unfounded hunch is that you need something that can play the role of phosphorous as an energy carrier, and that it would be hard to find that in just CHON structures. On the other hand, it's possible that even a really poor substitute would offer enough for life to arise, even if it was inefficient, slow, and fragile compared to life on earth: there would be no stronger threat from other life using phosphorous.

The next question is whether metal-poor planets can produce a technological civilization. How important is metalworking in our history? Can you substitute something else for it? Can you get a spacefaring or radio-capable civilization without metals for magnets, wires, and electronics? There are alternatives like organic conductors and semiconductors, but are those accessible without the intervening metals stage? Just how metal-poor are these planets, anyway? Would it be like iron, copper, aluminum, and tin being only as available as, say, nickel is on Earth? Or is silver or gold a more appropriate comparison? Or even rarer than that? Or are they present, but not concentrated into usable deposits?

I feel like I don't know enough about the detailed makeup of these planets to give even a qualitative answer to your question. I'm not sure anyone knows enough about what is required for life to give a good answer. More data about the planets in question will clearly be helpful.

Comment author: FiftyTwo 10 September 2012 10:49:54PM *  1 point [-]

Another great filter related question I posted a while ago but didn't get much response to:

Could the great filter just be a case of anthropic bias?

  • Assume any interplanetary species will colonise everything within reasonable distance in a time-scale significantly shorter than it takes a new intelligent species to emerge.
  • If a species had colonised our planet their presence would have prevented our evolution as an intelligent species.
  • Therefore we shouldn't expect to see any evidence of other species.

So the universe could be teeming with intelligent life, and theres no good reason there can't be any near us, but if there were we would not have existed. Hence we don't see any.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 11 September 2012 03:23:11AM 0 points [-]

This is an interesting idea but I think it doesn't work. Say for example that another species starts 200 million light years away and is spreading a colonization wave at .5 which is a pretty extreme value. Then one should have at least 400 million years to notice that. And it is going to be pretty hard to do a fast colonization wave without some astronomically detectable signs. Reducing the colonization speed makes it less likely to be detected but increases the time span.

Comment author: TheOtherDave 11 September 2012 04:06:31AM 0 points [-]

It seems no less plausible that what spreads outward at a sizable fraction of lightspeed is a wave of "terraforming" agents, altering all planets in the neighborhood into more suitable colony planets. Meanwhile colonization spreads at a rate roughly bounded by the ratio of reproduction rate to death rate, which might well be significantly slower than that.

That scenario would be enough to ensure that if an intelligent species evolves, it is necessarily far from any spreading interstellar empire (since otherwise the terraforming agents would have destroyed it), without having to posit such a fast colonization wave.

That said, though, why assume that a colonization wave is astronomically detectable? Being detectable at this range with our instruments is surely an indication of wasting rather an enormous amount of energy that could instead be put to use by a sufficiently advanced technology, no?

Comment author: JoshuaZ 11 September 2012 12:40:12PM 0 points [-]

That said, though, why assume that a colonization wave is astronomically detectable? Being detectable at this range with our instruments is surely an indication of wasting rather an enormous amount of energy that could instead be put to use by a sufficiently advanced technology, no?

Waste heat is one thing there's not much one can do about. Even a Dyson sphere will have it. In the case of Dyson spheres there have been active attempts to find them. See here although some other work suggests that Dyson spheres are just not that likely(pdf). Most largescale engineering projects will leave a recognizable signature. In this example, systematic searches have only been done out a few hundred light years, but stellar engineering is in the more blunt forms noticeable even at an intergalactic level.

Moreover, many ship designs lead to detectable results. For example, large fusion torch drives have a known sort of signature that we've looked for and haven't found.

Comment author: John_Maxwell_IV 01 September 2012 11:17:44PM 1 point [-]

Are there any metals necessary for life?

Comment author: JoshuaZ 01 September 2012 11:41:09PM *  4 points [-]

Astronomers use metal to mean elements other than hydrogen and helium. Metals in the chemists sense of the word aren't in general necessary. A lot of life is pure CHONPS. However, most complex life involves some amount of metals in the chemical sense (most animals require both iron and selenium for example). And planets which are of low metalicity in the astronomical sense will be necessarily be of extremely low metal content in the chemical sense, since in order to get the actual metals other than just lithium and beryllium require extensive synthesis chains before one gets to them.

Comment author: John_Maxwell_IV 02 September 2012 12:21:34AM 1 point [-]

Thanks for the clarification!

Comment author: Douglas_Knight 01 September 2012 05:21:34PM 1 point [-]

Yes, a planet around an old star should raise the odds of old, hence, metal-poor planets, but how much? Old stars have plenty of time to do other things to acquire planets, such as stealing them or creating them while passing through metal-rich nebulas. Can we directly measure the composition of this planet?

Comment author: ciphergoth 09 September 2012 09:30:04AM 3 points [-]

We are not the first to have meta discussions. Where are the best ideas on technical and social means to foster productive and reduce unproductive discussion? Are there bloggers that focus on getting the best out of "the bottom half of the Internet"?

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 02 September 2012 03:05:30PM 3 points [-]

Is there anything solid known about eye position (front vs. side of skull) and other aspects of an organism's life? It seems to me that front of the skull correlates with being a hunter, but (as is usual with biology) there may well be exceptions.

For example, lemurs aren't especially hunters, but they have eyes in front.

I was thinking that cats are both hunters and prey, and they have eyes in front.

Also, what about the evolution of eye position? How much of a lag is there if living conditions change?

Comment author: [deleted] 03 September 2012 06:12:12AM *  2 points [-]

Probably worth noting that fish, even predatory ones, don't necessarily have binocular vision, and vice versa for herbivores. Sperm whales are the largest living predators and lack it; fruit bats, who don't hunt, do have it.

There ARE incentives to develop it, or retain it, based on those lifestyle differences, but it makes for a somewhat fuzzy heuristic.

The other thing is this is pretty much restricted to fish and their mutant descendants, the tetrapods. Get outside the chordates and you find different solutions to these problems. Arthropods have several distinct kinds of eye architecture and sometimes their strategies generalize well: house flies (which are prey and scavengers) and dragonflies (which hunt) both have similarly-structure eyes; if anything I think the dragonfly has wider coverage. Spiders often rely on widely-placed eyes of differing strengths and ranges; mantis shrimp only have the two eyes, on stalks, and are renowned predators.

So it might look like a generalizable rule because it applies to so many of the most obvious, easy-to-examine large animals you can find, but remember they're our close anatomical cousins, and they're solving the problem with very similar design constraints.

(Also, primates -- many primates who spend a lot of time in trees, but don't hunt, have binocular vision. In their case it's there because of its benefits for rangefinding and spacial awareness in an arboreal environment.)

Comment author: dbaupp 02 September 2012 04:37:55PM *  1 point [-]

I have read stuff that posited that hunters have front eyes (I think the reason given was for more accurate depth perception), and that prey-animals have eyes towards the side of their head to give a wider field of vision.

I'll see if I can refind any of that stuff.


I didn't find exactly what I was thinking of (I think it was probably a book), but a section of the Binocular vision wikipedia article has some information (uncited, unfortunately). Specifically:

Some animals, usually but not always prey animals, have their two eyes positioned on opposite sides of their heads to give the widest possible field of view. Examples include rabbits, buffaloes, and antelopes. In such animals, the eyes often move independently to increase the field of view. Even without moving their eyes, some birds have a 360-degree field of view.

Other animals, usually but not always predatory animals, have their two eyes positioned on the front of their heads, thereby allowing for binocular vision and reducing their field of view in favor of stereopsis. Examples include humans, eagles, wolves, and snakes.

Some predator animals, particularly large ones such as sperm whales and killer whales, have their two eyes positioned on opposite sides of their heads. Other animals that are not necessarily predators, such as fruit bats and a number of primates also have forward facing eyes. These are usually animals that need fine depth discrimination/perception; for instance, binocular vision improves the ability to pick a chosen fruit or to find and grasp a particular branch.

Comment author: lsparrish 01 September 2012 07:19:03PM 3 points [-]

I've just started playing with Foldit, a game that lets science harness your brain for protein folding problems. It has already been used to decode an HIV protein and find a better enzyme for catalyzing industrial processes. Currently, work is under way to design treatments for Sepsis.

Comment author: [deleted] 05 September 2012 05:32:24PM *  6 points [-]

Challenge: Steel man Time Cube.

I read the following by Kate Evens on Twitter:

Time Cube: the control group for steelmanning.

And I became curious. What could LW come up with?

Comment author: J_Taylor 06 September 2012 01:45:39AM 7 points [-]

According to Wikipedia:

"Before Time Cube, Otis E. Ray advocated the sport of marbles. He authored a book titled Mr. Marbles – Marbles for Everyone,and got the city council of St. Petersburg, Florida to proclaim a "Marbles Week" in the 1970s. In 1987, this became a controversial attempt to establish a million dollar marble tournament inside a huge round structure and establish a philosophical "Order of the Sphere."

By rejecting many small spheres in favor of one large cube, Gene Ray has dedicated his life to demonstrating that reversed stupidity is not intelligence.

Comment author: [deleted] 09 September 2012 07:11:38AM *  4 points [-]

It seems Yvian has accepted the challenge and made a steel man attempt.

Comment author: AlexMennen 09 September 2012 04:10:26AM 1 point [-]

Consider the great circle passing through your current location and the Earth's poles, together with the great circle perpendicular to it at the poles. These form 4 lines of longitude, each one of which is experiencing a different day simultaneously (for instance, when it is midnight on your line of longitude, it is 6am, noon, and 6pm on the others). Of course, you might wonder why I would single out these 4 lines of longitude instead of just the one at your current location, giving the traditional 1 day per 24 hours, or all of them, giving infinity days per 24 hours. Of course, it would be ridiculous to say that there is a different day going on in one location and another some infinitesimal distance away from it, so the latter is a non-starter. And the standard 1-day answer ignores the fact that different longitudes do not experience the same day. Counting 4 days occurring at the same time makes sense because then the days are separated by 90-degree rotations of the Earth, and correspond to quadrants of a circle. 90 degrees is the most fundamental angle in geometry, and should be considered the primary unit of rotation, as explained in this video (relevant discussion starting at 4:28).

Comment author: Viliam_Bur 06 September 2012 12:02:20PM 1 point [-]

Challenge: Steel man TimeCube.

There is more than one time zone. When you search information about time, Bible is an unreliable source. Also, teachers should not use Bible in classrooms.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 13 September 2012 11:32:04AM 5 points [-]

Greater gender equality means that women are less apt to look for status in mates. Hey, it's just one study, but when does that stop anybody else?

Comment author: [deleted] 13 September 2012 03:45:33PM *  8 points [-]

I'm pretty sure greater gender equality in a society translates into women who are less likely to say they look for status in mates. To a certain extent it seems plausible that it influences behaviour, I'm very sceptical of the implied argument that "high status in men" ceases to be a key sexy trait if you just have the right culture though.

The participants were asked in their native language whether certain criteria (such as ‘financial prospect’ and ‘being a good cook’) were important in choosing a mate.

Did they put "is well liked by other women" or "someone who my friends consider cool" on that list?

Comment author: Blackened 18 September 2012 08:24:25PM 2 points [-]

Sexuality is a strange thing. If you consciously think something is sexy, it then becomes sexy for you. At least that's how it works for me, I'm generalizing from one example here.

Comment author: [deleted] 19 September 2012 06:08:24AM 2 points [-]

In our society the consensus seems to be it doesn't quite work like that, at least when it comes to things like say homosexuality.

Comment author: Blackened 19 September 2012 08:42:56PM 1 point [-]

I didn't say that sexuality is entirely shaped by this, only that it's influenced. Say, when I read that hourglass-shaped women bodies are supposed to be attractive, I started noticing that I think I'm attracted to that, although one can argue that I used to be before I read it, so I only started noticing that. However, it worked for me for other things, many of which are not liked by many people.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 13 September 2012 04:59:32PM 2 points [-]

I don't know, but that last would just reflect the consensus, no matter what it was.

It might be worthwhile to ask men from the various countries what women seemed to be looking for.

Comment author: [deleted] 13 September 2012 06:28:51PM *  2 points [-]

It might be worthwhile to ask men from the various countries what women seemed to be looking for.

I'm not sure this would produce good results. That we have the phrase "he got lucky" indicates men may be clueless about what women want. A better result would be gained data mining online behaviour in response to flirting on say Facebook.

Computational sociology ftw.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 13 September 2012 06:36:02PM 1 point [-]

"Might be useful" is a weak claim. I was thinking that if men say "women want men with money" in the gender disparity countries and they say "women want good-looking men" in the gender equal countries, it would be confirmatory evidence. Likewise, it might be of interest if men of different ages in the same country have different views of what women want.

There are certainly plenty of men who are convinced they know what women want on the average, if not in particular cases. I wonder how much they're subject to availability bias.

Comment author: [deleted] 13 September 2012 01:09:35PM 1 point [-]

The researchers had 3,177 respondents complete an online mate preference survey from 10 countries ranking from a low (Finland) to a high (Turkey) gender gap in terms of the Global Gender Gap Index (GGI) – a measure that was recently introduced by World Economic Forum to iron out shortcomings of earlier gender parity measures. The participants were asked in their native language whether certain criteria (such as ‘financial prospect’ and ‘being a good cook’) were important in choosing a mate.

Dr Zentner says what they found was that the gender difference in mate preferences predicted by evolutionary psychology models “is highest in gender-unequal societies, and smallest in the most gender-equal societies.”

Comment author: [deleted] 01 September 2012 06:44:42PM *  4 points [-]

A 3 minute talk on the Financial Consequences of Too Many Men. It seems the perceived sex ratio strongly influences male behaviours.

The perception that women are scarce leads men to become impulsive, save less, and increase borrowing, according to new research from the University of Minnesota's Carlson School of Management.

Research on this in the context of online forums such as ours might be very interesting.

A related blog entry by Peter Frost title Our brideprice culture that deals with societal implications of gender imbalance. It begins with highlighting a gender imbalance that many mention when talking about China but don't notice in is clearly present in the West as well, he then proceeds to discuss the likely consequences for society. The analysis is cogent and somewhat depressing.

A side point:

Will the operational sex ratio return to normal in the future? No, but it may stop getting worse. The trend toward male longevity seems to have almost maxed out for all reproductive ages. And fewer older men will be reentering the mate market—the baby boomers are getting a bit old for that sort of thing. But then we’ll probably also see more polygyny of the non-serial kind. Simultaneous polygyny is hard to measure, since it’s illegal, but it seems to be a growing phenomenon. The incidence of gonorrhea and chlamydial infection is now higher in women than in men, an indication that the population of promiscuous individuals is disproportionately female (Miller et al., 2004).

I disagree, I think this is an indicator of sexual inequality between men.

Comment author: Epiphany 02 September 2012 12:56:20AM *  2 points [-]

As a female, I wonder what it means that I don't react to behaviors like competing for status, class signaling and spending beyond ones means by being attracted - instead, I have the same feeling I get when people are being immature and stupid. Lol. I have thought about this a lot. I am just not attracted to the ordinary symbols of male power - though I seem to have a few triggers. Height doesn't matter, muscles don't do a thing and money has no effect. The demonstrations of power I do enjoy are when they're able to hold up their end of a debate with me (I keep wishing for someone to win against me), or when they're doing something really, really intellectually difficult. Those things, I do respond to. Fluff? No.

I have to wonder if other women who are as intellectual as I am are the same.

Comment author: Viliam_Bur 02 September 2012 10:59:45AM *  14 points [-]

As [...] I wonder what it means that I don't [...].

Generally, when someone says that majority of A do X, but you are A and don't do X, here are some possible explanations:

  • the statistics is simply wrong;
  • the statistics is correct about the majority, but you as an individual are an exception, and possibly so are some of your friends (this similarity could have contributed to you being friends);
  • the statistics is correct about the majority, but within it a minority is an exception, and you belong to this minority, and possibly so do some of your friends;
  • you are wrong, you are actually doing X, but you rationalize that it's something else.

Also from the outside, if someone else is saying this, don't forget:

  • publication bias -- people who don't fit the statistics are more like to write about it then those who fit are likely to write "me too" (in communities that value independence).

Specifically for this topic, think also about the difference between maximizers and satisficers. If you read that "females value X", you may automatically translate it as "females are X-maximizers", and then observe that you are not. But even then you could still be an X-satisficer; you could have a treshold of "status + class + spending", where people below this treshold just don't catch your attention, and from the pool above this treshold you select using different criteria. Thus it may seem that "status + class + spending" are not part of your criteria, but they simply make your first filter, and then you consciously focus on your personal second filter.

(Simple example: You are consciously selecting for funny guys, not rich ones. However, you would never give a homeless guy an opportunity to show you how funny he is. Therefore you are effectively selecting for funny and non-homeless guys; you just don't think about the second part too much. For less obvious example, replace "homeless" with "not having (signals of) university education" or "not living in an expensive city".)

Comment author: [deleted] 02 September 2012 10:35:52PM 2 points [-]

What's the difference between the second and the third bullet?

Comment author: Epiphany 02 September 2012 06:53:52PM *  1 point [-]

Thanks for seeing that there are multiple options for interpretation. I hate it when people interpret my behavior into a false dichotomy of options, which happens to me frequently, so I am finding this refreshing.

I have a functionality threshold, but I see that as different from a class threshold. For instance, I had a boyfriend that had recently graduated from school. He was unemployed at that point, of course. It took him a very long time to get a job due to the recession. That didn't deter me from liking him. Why not? I had no reason to think he was dysfunctional, I figured he would get a job eventually.

On the other hand, if I meet someone who reeks of alcohol and obviously hasn't showered in a week, I'm going to be assuming they're dysfunctional - that even if their situation could be temporary, they're probably exacerbating it.

That's not about class. That's about wanting only functional, healthy relationships in my life. It's not a healthy relationship if you have to pay for a person's food and shelter because they're not able to get those things for themselves.

If I meet someone who seems functional (has showered, does not reek of alcohol, etc.) and they strike up intelligent conversation (funny is nice but intelligent conversation is more my thing) but happen to be homeless, I will judge them based on how functional they are. I would not invest much until they get back on their feet, because I know better than to think that seeming functional and actually being functional are the same thing, but I wouldn't refuse to talk to them if they seemed interesting and functional.

Why invest in a guy who just graduated but not the homeless guy? Well let's ask this: what did the recent graduate do wrong? Nothing. Nothing is out of the ordinary if a recent grad is looking for work. That's normal. That's not a red flag. The homeless person, though may have done something to cause their situation. That is an abnormal situation, a red flag. I won't be sure they are capable of supporting themselves until I see it. On the other hand, the recent grad has just spent several years doing hard work - they've demonstrated that they're functional enough to be capable of supporting themselves.

That's what's important for me - whether people are able to support themselves, maintain stability, and be functional in general.

Comment author: wedrifid 02 September 2012 04:24:51AM 12 points [-]

I don't react to behaviors like competing for status, class signaling and spending beyond ones means

The demonstrations of power I do enjoy are when they're able to hold up their end of a debate with me (I keep wishing for someone to win against me), or when they're doing something really, really intellectually difficult. Those things, I do respond to.

That is class signalling (of a particular class) and winning debates is competing for status.

Fluff? No.

You have your own sexual preferences and the traits that you are not attracted to appear less intrinsically worthy. Another woman may say she isn't attracted to "Fluff" like intellectual displays and rhetorical flair and instead is only attracted to the 'things that really matter' like social alliances, security and physical health.

I have to wonder if other women like me are the same.

This seems tautologically likely.

Comment author: Epiphany 02 September 2012 05:03:10AM 0 points [-]

Lol thank you Wedrifid, that was refreshing, and you were pretty good.

I disagree with you, but you're welcome to continue the disagreement with me. (:

Just because other people use those as signals that a person is in a particular place in a hierarchy does not mean that:

A. I believe in social hierarchies or that social hierarchies even exist. (I see them as an illusion).

B. The specific reason I am attracted to these qualities is due to an attraction to people in a certain position in the social hierarchy.

The reasons I want someone who is able to defeat me in a debate are:

  1. It gets extremely tedious to disagree with people who can't. I end up teaching them things endlessly in order to get us to a point of agreement, while learning too little.

  2. I might get careless if nobody knocks me down for a long time. It's not good for me.

  3. It is rather uncomfortable and awkward in a relationship or even a friendship if one person is always right and the other always loses debates. That feels wrong.

"Fluff, no." vs "You have your own preferences and other people see your preference as fluff."

If I said I had a million dollars, but really, I was a million dollars in debt, would that be an empty claim? Yes. If a person is spending beyond their means in order to signal that they have money, they're being dishonest. So that's fluff.

If social hierarchies don't actually exist, and a person signals that they're in one, is that real, or is it a fantasy? if they don't exist, it's fluff.

"This seems tautologically likely."

Okay, this was an embarrassing failure to use clear wording on my part. Although you're not actually disagreeing with me, you got me good, lol.

That was fun. Feel free to disagree with me from now on.

Comment author: beoShaffer 02 September 2012 06:22:46AM *  3 points [-]

I believe in social hierarchies or that social hierarchies even exist. (I see them as an illusion).

Can you clarify what you mean by this?

B. The specific reason I am attracted to these qualities is due to an attraction to people in a certain position in the social hierarchy. The reasons I want someone who is able to defeat me in a debate are: 1.It gets extremely tedious to disagree with people who can't. I end up teaching them things endlessly in order to get us to a point of agreement, while learning too little. 2.I might get careless if nobody knocks me down for a long time. It's not good for me. 3.It is rather uncomfortable and awkward in a relationship or even a friendship if one person is always right and the other always loses debates. That feels wrong.

These are decent reasons to intentionally seek out someone who can out debate you, however as far as actual attraction goes they make just as much, if not more sense as post-hoc rationalizations as real reasons. As Yvain has explained all introspection of the type you are engaging is prone to this error mode and while reasons your reasons 1 & 3 aren't completely inconsistent with our knowledge of human attraction they don't fit as well as the hypothesis that you are attracted to behaviors that signal high IQ and/or status while side-steping your issues with the most common ways of displaying those traits (this is largely based on what I've been told in various psychology classes, I don't have the original studies that my professors based their conclusions on on hand).

-edit if anyone knows how to make blockquote play nice with the original formatting let me know, I think this works for now.

Comment author: Epiphany 02 September 2012 09:50:47AM *  2 points [-]

On introspection biases: For minor things, I wouldn't be surprised if I make errors in judging why I do them, because it can take a bit of rigor to do this well. But if something is important, I can use meta-cognition and ask myself a series of questions (carefully worded - this is a skill I have practiced), seeing how I feel after each, to determine why I am doing something. I carefully word them to prevent myself from taking them as suggestions. Instead, I make sure I interpret them as yes or no questions. For instance: "Does class make me feel attracted?" instead of "Should I feel attracted to class?" - it's an important distinction to make, especially for certain topics like fears. "Am I afraid of spiders because I assume they're poisonous?" will get a totally different reaction (assuming I am not afraid of them) than "Would I be afraid of spiders if I thought they are all poisonous?"

It takes a little concentration to get it right during introspection.

So we'll start with class for example. I ask myself "Do I find class attractive?" and I can ask myself things like "Imagine a guy with lots of money asks me out. How do I feel?" and "Imagine a guy who has things in common with me asks me out, how do I feel?" If you ask enough questions for compare and contrast, you can get pretty good answers this way.

To make sure I'm not just having random reactions based on how I want to feel, I come up with real examples from my recent past. In the last year or so, I have been asked out by or dated a lot of different people with varying amounts of income. There were a lot of guys who are making 6 figures - this is because I tend to attract well paid IT guys. I liked some of them but didn't like all of them. Some of the guys making 6 figures didn't attract me whatsoever. So income doesn't make me like a guy all by itself.

I can ask "Does having a high income make me like them more?"

The two top attractions of all time, for me, were to an underpaid writer and a college student.

I can ask "Does availability of men with lots of money have anything to do with it?"

After dating something like five or ten guys who make around 6 figures over the last year and someodd, the one I liked best actually makes a moderate income. There is another guy that does make a large income that I liked quite a bit. But if the fact that guys who make 6 figures are available was going to interfere, it wouldn't make sense that I'd have liked the guy with a moderate income so much.

So, there are ways to determine what your real motivations are - but it takes skill, and requires more rigor that the quick answers these people are giving in the studies, for sure.

Comment author: Gabriel 02 September 2012 06:18:48PM 7 points [-]

Believing oneself to be an exceptional case was a common failure mode among the subjects of studies summarized in Yvain's article. When confronted with the experimental results showing how their behavior was influenced in ways unknown to them, they would either deny it outright or admit that it is a very interesting phenomenon that surely affected other people but they happened to be the lone exception to the rule.

That doesn't really preclude your introspective skills (I actually believe such skills can be developed to an extent) but it should make you suspicious.

Comment author: beoShaffer 02 September 2012 10:37:13PM *  2 points [-]

So we'll start with class for example. I ask myself "Do I find class attractive?" and I can ask myself things like "Imagine a guy with lots of money asks me out. How do I feel?" and "Imagine a guy who has things in common with me asks me out, how do I feel?" If you ask enough questions for compare and contrast, you can get pretty good answers this way.

This type of hypothetical questioning is notoriously unreliable, people ofter come up with answers that don't reflect their actual reactions, If you read closely Yvain's article already gives several examples. It's also one of the methodologies that my psychology teachers highlighted as sounding good, but being largely unreliable.

To make sure I'm not just having random reactions based on how I want to feel, I come up with real examples from my recent past. In the last year or so, I have been asked out by or dated a lot of different people with varying amounts of income. There were a lot of guys who are making 6 figures - this is because I tend to attract well paid IT guys. I liked some of them but didn't like all of them. Some of the guys making 6 figures didn't attract me whatsoever. So income doesn't make me like a guy all by itself.

This is better, but between the general unreliability of memory and the number other factors that would need to be controlled for its still not that great. Particularly since you do feel attracted to men who are more dominate as debaters.

Comment author: Epiphany 03 September 2012 12:03:52AM 2 points [-]

It occurs to me that since this debate is about me and my subjective experiences, there's really no way for either of us to win. Even if we got a whole bunch of people with different incomes and did an experiment on me to see which ones I was more attracted to, the result of the experiment would be subjective and there would be no way for anyone to know I wasn't pretending.

I still think that there are ways to know what's going on inside you with relatively good certainty. Part of the reason I believe this is because I'm able to change myself, meaning that I am able to decide to feel a different way and accomplish that. I don't mean to say I can decide to experience pleasure instead of pain if I bang my toe, but that I am able to dig around in the belief system behind my feelings, figure out what ideas are in there, improve the ideas, and translate that change over to the emotional part of me so that I react to the new ideas emotionally. If I was wrong about my motivations, this would not work, so the fact that I can do this supports the idea that I'm able to figure out what I'm thinking with a pretty high degree of accuracy. I would like to write an article about how I do this at some point because it's been a really useful skill for me, and I want to share. But right now I've got a lot on my plate. I think it's best for us to discontinue this debate about whether or not my subjective experiences match my perceptions or your expectations, and if you want to tear apart my writings on how I change myself later, you can.

Your links are bookmarked, so if your purpose was to make sure I was aware of them, I've got them. Thanks.

Comment author: shminux 02 September 2012 03:42:22AM *  9 points [-]

The demonstrations of power I do enjoy are when they're able to hold up their end of a debate with me (I keep wishing for someone to win against me)

How do you define winning? From my observation of your comments here, you refuse to concede even when your arguments no longer make sense. Maybe they just get tired and pretend to yield, or look for a girl with less ego.

Comment author: Epiphany 02 September 2012 05:46:04AM *  2 points [-]

Being wrong and not making sense to somebody isn't the same thing. If you want to really nail somebody at debate, you generally have to corner them really good by highlighting a flaw in a key point or points that destroy the supports for their belief. If you see the way that Wedrifid undermines my points, those are some examples of the types of attacks that might corner me into a defeat.

You're right to be concerned that my ego might be too big - I am concerned that I may become careless, and think that I'm going to win and then fail because I was overconfident. So far, I haven't had a big problem with that, but if this goes on long enough, I could start doing that.

Which is why I keep asking for it. I've added a request for honest critiques into a few of my discussions now, hoping that people will eventually feel comfortable with debating with me, if they're not now.

As for specifically why somebody might not make sense and yet not be wrong... well that could range anywhere from a common misunderstanding, to being bad at explaining your ideas (I admit that when trying to explain a new idea I am frequently misunderstood - there's a pattern to my problem which is really difficult to explain and even more difficult to compensate for, so I'm not going to get into that here). It is also possible that the audience was not ready for the message, didn't know a concept that was required to understand it or something, didn't get enough sleep, really there are so many reasons why stuff can fail to make sense, yet not be wrong.

And then there's the problem of getting the person to realize they've lost. Not all failures to realize you've lost are due to ego. We all want to protect ourselves against bad ideas, and nobody knows where the next bad idea is coming from. You often have to go over a lot of pieces of information with them until they get it, and sometimes it's hard to get at their true rejection. Sometimes you think you're right and the other person just isn't listening to you, but really they happen to be right. There is so much confusion in the world. It takes a pretty good amount of skill to convince someone they've lost.

Comment author: evand 02 September 2012 02:32:43PM *  8 points [-]

This approach to debating strikes me as exemplifying everything bad that I learned in high school policy debate. Specifically, it seems to me like debate distilled down to a status competition, with arguments as soldiers and the goal being for your side to win. For status competitions, signaling of intellectual ability, and demonstrating your blue or green allegiance, this works well. What it does not sound like, to me, is someone who is seeking the truth for herself. If you engaged in a debate with someone of lesser rhetorical skill, but who was also correct on an issue where you were incorrect (perhaps not even the main subject of the debate, but a small portion), would you notice? Would you give their argument proper attention, attempt to fix your opponent's arguments, and learn from the result? Or would you simply be happy that you had out-debated them, supported all your soldiers, killed the enemy soldiers, and "won" the debate? Beware the prodigy of refutation.

Comment author: bogus 02 September 2012 02:49:32PM 1 point [-]

Adversarial debates are not without their usefulness, such as in legal and political processes. It's true that they are generally suboptimal as far as deliberative truth-seeking goes, but sometimes we really do care about refuting incorrect positions and arguments ("killing soldiers") as clearly as possible.

Comment author: [deleted] 02 September 2012 03:38:35AM 5 points [-]

As a female, I wonder what it means that I don't react to behaviors like competing for status, class signaling and spending beyond ones means by being attracted

It means that the narratives surrounding pop-distillations of evolutionary psychological accounts of human sexuality shouldn't be given too much weight when evaluating actual human beings, mostly.

instead, I have the same feeling I get when people are being immature and stupid.

Same here; I tend to find it actively repellent.

Comment author: atorm 02 September 2012 03:28:52AM *  1 point [-]

Your description of being attracted to intellect in men gave me the urge to find a way to debate you. Since this would probably count as competing for status, do you think you would find it attractive in person (assuming I actually could keep up with you)?

EDIT: I'm in a relationship and not seeking another: I'm just curious about your response to men trying to attract you with intellectual signalling.

Comment author: [deleted] 11 September 2012 01:05:17AM *  2 points [-]

In the Transactional Interpretation, Cramer claims:

Further, the TI description does not need to invoke arbitrary collapse triggers such as consciousness, etc., because it is the absorber rather than the observer which precipitates the collapse of the SV, and this can occur atemporally and nonlocally across any sort of interval between elements of the measuring apparatus.

What is it about "absorbers" (which seems very much like a magical category, morally equivalent to "observers") which make them non-magical and therefore different from observers. When I go through and replace "absorber" with "observer" and the like, the result seems to say more or less the same thing. Therefore either I'm missing something (which is quite likely) or there's no ontological difference between the two concepts.

EDIT: The most interesting thing about the linked essay is that he compares TI to straw-Copenhagen in a way that is eerily similar to the way EY compared MWI to straw-Copenhagen.

Comment author: shminux 11 September 2012 01:57:05AM 0 points [-]

I don't think that you are missing anything.

Comment author: [deleted] 04 September 2012 09:25:03AM 2 points [-]
Comment author: shminux 03 September 2012 06:59:52AM 2 points [-]

Nuke'm solution to the Newcomb problem: tell Omega that you pick what he'd have picked for himself, were he in your situation. That'll Godel him.

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 03 September 2012 07:41:56AM 4 points [-]

I think this should be "I'll pick the opposite of what you'll predict me to pick", otherwise Omega will Loeb you...

Comment author: Viliam_Bur 02 September 2012 08:52:11PM *  11 points [-]

This discussion thread is insane.

Essentially, Eliezer gets negative karma for some of his comments (-13, -4, -12, -7) explaining why he thinks the new changes of karma rules are a good thing. To compare, even the obvious trolls usually don't get -13 comment karma.

What exactly is the problem? I don't think that for a regular commenter, having to pay 5 karma points for replying to a negatively voted comment is such a problem. Because you will do it only once in a while, right? Most of your comments will still be reactions to articles or to non-negatively voted comments, right? So what exactly is this problem, and why this overreaction? Certainly, there are situations where replying to a negatively voted comment is the right thing to do. But are they the exception, or the rule? Because the new algorithm does not prevent you from doing this; it only provides a trivial disincentive to do so.

What is happening here?

A few months ago LW needed an article to defend that some people here really have read the Sequences, and that recommending Sequences to someone is not an offense. What? How can this happen on a website which originally more or less was the Sequences? That seemed absurd to me, and so does this; as if both suggest that LW is becoming less what it was, and more a general discussion forum.

I suggest everyone to think for a moment about the fact that Eliezer somehow created this site, wrote a lot of content people consider useful, and made some decisions about the voting system, which together resulted in a website we like. So perhaps this is some Bayesian evidence that he knows what he is doing. And even in the case this would turn out to be a mistake, it would be easy to revert. Also, everyone here is completely free to create a competing x-rationalist website, if your worst nightmares about LW come true. (And then I want to see how you solve the problem of trolling there, when it suddenly becomes your responsibility.)

Recently we had also a few articles about how to make LW more popular; how to attract more readers and participants. Well, if that happens, we will need more strict moderation than we have now; otherwise we will drown in the noise. For instance, within this week we have a full screen of "Discussion" articles, some of them containing 86, 103, 191 comments. How many of those comments contain really useful information? What is your estimate, how many of that information will you remember after one week? Do you think that visiting LW once in a week is enough to deal with that amount of information? Or do you just ignore most of that? How big part of a week can you spend online reading LW, and still pretending you are being rational instead of procrastinating?

Perhaps LW needs more users, but it probably needs less text per week (certainly not more); both articles and comments. Less chatting, more thinking, better expressing ourselves. More moderation is needed. And most of you are not going to pay for human moderators, so I think you should just accept the existing rules, and their changes. Or you can always make a competing website, you know; but you won't do it, and you also know why.

Comment author: Mitchell_Porter 03 September 2012 05:40:55PM 13 points [-]

My thoughts on the recent excitement about "trolls", and moderation, and the new karma penalty for engaging with significantly downvoted comments:

First, the words troll and trolling are being used very indiscriminately, to refer to a wide variety of behaviors and intentions. If LW really needed to have a long-term discussion, about how to deal with the "troll problem", it would be advisable to develop a much more precise vocabulary, and also a more objective, verifiable assessment of how much "trolling" and "troll-feeding" was happening, e.g. a list of examples.

However, it seems that people are already moving on. For future reference, here are all the articles in Discussion which arose directly from the appearance of the new penalty and the ensuing debate: "Karma for last 30 days?", "Dealing with trolling", "Dealing with meta-disussion", "Karma vote checklist?", "Preventing endless September", "Protection against cultural collapse", and hopefully that's the end of it.

So it seems we won't need some specialized troll-ologists to work out all the issues. Rather than a "war on trolls" becoming a permanent element of LW political life, I'm hoping that in the long run this is just an episode in the history of LW governance. The site has transformed several times, it will undoubtedly transform again, and this is just a blip, one bump on the road.

I am somewhat interested in the larger issue of how the site might best produce intellectual progress. Viliam links to Grognor's article, "I Stand by the Sequences" (note that Grognor has since quit LW to join the aphoristic faction on Twitter, like "muflax" and "Kate Evans", who specialize in producing philosophical one-liners). A similar article from the same period is "Our Phyg Is Not Exclusive Enough". These articles received some criticism as promoting dogmatism, groupthink, exclusivity, etc.; Alexander Kruel, aka XiXiDu, another LW defector, blogged about them as evidence of this.

However, I very much agree with the impulse behind those articles, even though I dissent from common LW opinion in some major ways. LW is not a site for anyone to talk about anything; it's not even a site for anyone who considers themselves "rational" to talk about anything. The Sequences do define a philosophy and they need to remain the reference point. Perhaps elements of them will one day, by consensus, be regarded as definitively obsolete, replaced by something better, but they're still the starting point from which any future progress begins, even if it's progress by opposition.

A year ago, I wondered what LW would amount to, if anything. LW is protean, it has many dimensions, but I especially meant its place in the history of ideas. I'm now prepared to say that it can amount to something, that it can be a tributary feeding into the common intellectual culture of humanity, but that will require a certain amount of discipline and due diligence on the part of people who do want it to matter that way. There are many things that are working already, for example the division between Discussion and Main (and perhaps the wiki represents an even higher-level distillation). It's good to have the rambunctious lower level where we are now, as well as the more rarefied and rigorous higher levels. It permits new possibilities to emerge.

Maybe my main message is to serious critics of LW (some of the "trolls" are just critics who aren't doing it constructively). They can actually contribute to the overall process by being more organized in their criticisms. This is one way that intellectual progress occurs: you have a position, you have an opposite position, and both positions are refined as a result of dialogue. LW, the site and the community, does have the mechanisms and the capacity to take on alternative views and give them a fair hearing, even if they are eventually rejected. Work with that, and we can all benefit.

One more thing I want to point out. It's often observed that hardly any sequences have been written since Eliezer. In fact, LWer palladias has written about a dozen series of posts on her blog in Sequence format. She recently achieved notoriety for converting from atheism to religion, so her sequences aren't LW canon, but they represent an interesting example of cross-pollination between very different schools of thought.

Comment author: [deleted] 03 September 2012 06:47:59AM 9 points [-]

Recently we had also a few articles about how to make LW more popular; how to attract more readers and participants. Well, if that happens, we will need more strict moderation than we have now; otherwise we will drown in the noise. For instance, within this week we have a full screen of "Discussion" articles, some of them containing 86, 103, 191 comments. How many of those comments contain really useful information? What is your estimate, how many of that information will you remember after one week? Do you think that visiting LW once in a week is enough to deal with that amount of information? Or do you just ignore most of that? How big part of a week can you spend online reading LW, and still pretending you are being rational instead of procrastinating?

Up voted for this. I can't believe how many people don't get it.

Comment author: drethelin 03 September 2012 06:26:13AM 7 points [-]

He got my downvotes for making terrible arguments defending a change that won't do what it's supposed to do, while also doing other shitty things. He was also an overconfident dick about the whole situation. The problem isn't the rule, it's the wrong beliefs about how the forums work and how they might be fixed.

Comment author: Rhwawn 03 September 2012 12:07:48AM *  17 points [-]

I suggest everyone to think for a moment about the fact that Eliezer somehow created this site, wrote a lot of content people consider useful, and made some decisions about the voting system, which together resulted in a website we like. So perhaps this is some Bayesian evidence that he knows what he is doing.

There's also plenty of Bayesian evidence he's not that great at moderation. SL4 was enough of an eventual failure to prompt the creation of OB; OB prompted the creation of LW; he failed to predict that opening up posting would lead to floods of posts like it did for LW; he signally failed to understand that his reaction to Roko's basilisk was pretty much the worst possible reaction he could engage in, such that even now it's still coming up in print publications about LWers; and this recent karma stuff isn't looking much better.

I am reminded strongly of Jimbo Wales. He too helped create a successful community but seemed to do so accidentally as he later supported initiatives that directly undermined what made that community function.

Comment author: Viliam_Bur 03 September 2012 03:58:43PM *  -1 points [-]

Seems to me there are two important factors to distinguish:

  • how good is Eliezer at "herding cats" (as opposed to someone else herding cats)
  • how difficult is herding cats (as opposed to herding other species)

To me it seems that the problem is the inherent difficulty of herding cats; and Eliezer is the most successful example I have ever seen. I have seen initially good web communities ruined after a year or two... and then I read an article describing how exactly that happened. From outside view, LW seems to survive for surprisingly long time as a decent website.

The problem with Roko seems to me a bit similar to what is happening now -- some people intentionally do things that annoy other people; moderator tries to supress that behavior; contrarians enjoy fighting him by making it more visible and rationalize their behavior as defending the freedom of speech or whatever. The Roko situation was much more insane; at least one person threatened to increase existential risk if Eliezer does not stop moderating the discussion. Today the most crazy reaction I found was upvoting an obvious troll so that others can comment on their nonsensical sequence of words without karma costs! Yay, that's exactly the behavior you would expect to find in a super-rational community, right? Unfortunately, it is exactly the kind of behavior you will find when you make a website for wannabe smart people.

Wikipedia is different: it is neither a blog nor a discussion forum. And it exists at cost of hundreds of people who have no life, so they can spend a lot of time in endless edit wars. This is yet another danger for LW. Not only new users can overrule the old users, but also the old users who have no life can overrule the old users whose instrumental goals are outside of LW. Users who want to reduce their procrastination on LW will not participate in endless discussions. If there is more content per day, they will simply read less, therefore they will vote less on an average comment, and they will have less word in "community" decisions. There is a risk that the procrastinators will simply optimize the website to fit their preferences -- preferences of people who don't mind spending a lot of time online, therefore e.g. reading comments by trolls and the subsequent discussions is not a problem for them. From their point of view, strict moderation will seem too harsh and fun-reducing.

As a reminder, if someone is convinced that they (as a person, or as a group) have better skills at maintaining a rationalist website, there is always a possibility of starting a new rationalist website. It could be even interlinked with LW, similarly like OB is now. Make an experiment, bet your own money and/or time!

Comment author: wedrifid 03 September 2012 04:22:59PM 6 points [-]

The problem with Roko seems to me a bit similar to what is happening now -- some people intentionally do things that annoy other people

This just isn't remotely accurate as a representation of history.

The remainder of the parent comment seems to present similarly false (or hyperbolically misrepresented) premises and reason from them to dubious conclusions.

Eliezer is not so vulnerable that he needs to be supported by bullshit.

Comment author: Rhwawn 05 September 2012 03:36:03PM 5 points [-]

I don't think any of that addresses the main point: what has Eliezer done that is evidence of good moderating skills? Who has Eliezer banned or not banned? etc.

The question isn't: "can Eliezer spend years cranking out high quality content on the excellent Reddit codebase with a small pre-existing community and see it grow?" It is: "can Eliezer effectively moderate this growing community?" And I gave several examples of how he had not done so effectively before LW, and has not done so effectively since LW.

(And I think you badly underestimate the similarities of Wikipedia during its good phase and LW. Both tackle tough problems and aspire to accumulate high quality content, with very nerdish users, and hence, solve or fail at very similar problems.)

Comment author: Sly 03 September 2012 06:14:14AM 3 points [-]

That thread is Bayesian evidence against the new poorly thought out rule. The objections that have been raised to it have not even come close to being met. That fact that your own post is a hair breadth away from inflicting negative karma on me should be enough to give you pause.

The reaction to the new rule should not be surprising. If it was surprising, then you should update your model.

Comment author: Gabriel 03 September 2012 09:28:24PM *  1 point [-]

Good point about the silliness of people downvoting Eliezer to show their disagreement.

Certainly, there are situations where replying to a negatively voted comment is the right thing to do. But are they the exception, or the rule? Because the new algorithm does not prevent you from doing this; it only provides a trivial disincentive to do so.

Using the phrase 'trivial disincentive' looks like a deliberate reference to this article which would be an unconvincing way to argue that the change won't cause any problems.

And in general, I don't think that the change will have really serious side-effects but I'm in favor of changing complex systems in as small increments as possible. The only sensible, currently relevant reason for implementing the new feature (flooding of the recent comments sidebar) that was given can be solved much less invasively by not having comments from crappy threads show up in the recent comments sidebar. For additional soft paternalist goodness, you could also have replies to comments made in such threads not appear in user's inboxes.

Do you think that visiting LW once in a week is enough to deal with that amount of information? Or do you just ignore most of that? How big part of a week can you spend online reading LW, and still pretending you are being rational instead of procrastinating?

Being able to keep up with all the conversation going on LessWrong seems incompatible with the goal of expanding the community. Reading comments and participating in conversation is a leisure activity. If I were very concerned with being "rational" about my LessWrong usage patterns I would stop reading them at all and stick to just articles (possibly only main section articles if I were really concerned).

Comment author: [deleted] 06 September 2012 12:45:31PM *  3 points [-]
Comment author: J_Taylor 07 September 2012 02:53:59AM 2 points [-]

I personally love nothing more than a Great Loyalty Oath Crusade.


Linked from Richard Carrier is this piece:

Avoid telling racist or sexist or homophobic jokes, unless perhaps if they are empowering because the target of the joke is the racist or sexist or homophobe. Don’t ever target specific real people with jokes or suggestions about rape or anal self-abuse.

I really hate it when someone tells me not to do something in a way that really makes me want to do it. I mean, I never thought of literally telling someone to self-abuse themselves anally before reading this post.

Comment author: drethelin 06 September 2012 04:29:56PM 1 point [-]

These comments seem terrible

Comment author: wedrifid 06 September 2012 05:50:41PM 1 point [-]

These comments seem terrible

That isn't surprising. The reasoning:

The comment section there is vigorously moderated by him and thus mostly worth reading as well.

... struck me as odd. Before seeing your contradiction and then confirming your judgement for myself I had been substituting "and yet despite that" for "thus". Fallout from Razib banning or driving away quality commenters has reached even here. At a first approximation I expect such moderation to support the ego of moderator and drive away any intellectual rivals, not guarantee that it is worth reading.

It takes more than 'vigor' to make moderation beneficial.

Comment author: [deleted] 06 September 2012 07:12:12PM *  4 points [-]

Fallout from Razib banning or driving away quality commenters has reached even here.

Don't multiply your anecdotes, since your source is just gwern getting banned for a while.

It is easy to speak like this since it appeals to the anti-authoritarian impulse of the average LW reader but I invite you to inspect the uninformed drivel one can read in the comment sections on some other quality blogs dealing with similar topics.

I would argue based on comparison to other such blogs that the occasional mistakes are worth it to maintain a good signal to noise ratio. I am not alone in this assessment.

Comment author: sam0345 07 September 2012 02:32:56AM 1 point [-]

I follow your comments, because you usually have something interesting to say - and usually something that gets a little close to the borders of what is permissible on less wrong.

Now, sorry to say, your recent comments have become boring. Has Less Wrong become even more repressive, or did you just run out of things to say?

Comment author: [deleted] 07 September 2012 05:58:56AM *  5 points [-]

Has Less Wrong become even more repressive

You are right on my recent comments being somewhat boring. In the past I've been told by people that they tend to read my posts because they are usually high quality correction or fun gadflyish needling.

Maybe my comments are more boring because there are fewer things wrong in interesting ways? Not that I would imply there are fewer things wrong in general unfortunate. I mostly agree with all recent criticisms I've made but some of it was pretty dull to write, I guess that shows. There are some signs that the political discourse is on a lower level than it was. I unfortunately often end up talking about politics, as I saw politically motivated stupidity on some topics. The other explanation is that I've been using the site to procrastinate more and thus didn't bother to abstain from marginal comments. There is however no excuse for spending way too much time on useless crappy meta debates as I did about a week or two ago.

When I think of what posts of value I think made in the past 30 days in which I'm apparently among the top contributors all I can think of that is of real value are the link posts. Which aren't bad, as I think LessWrong doesn't as a community does not update when exposed to good ideas and material from the outside. That this is the only kind of recent posts I see value in does shows I haven't either not taken the time or had the inspiration for new original ideas or synthesis.

Perhaps I need to study more new material, perhaps I need to do more thinking, perhaps I need a break. On the other hand I do think LW didn't really learn what I hoped it would from my old comments, so maybe this is more a problem of me sounding like a broken record because I have to keep repeating the same points, since this bores me I do it more poorly than before. So perhaps I need a new venue.

I've been meaning to take another month's leave from the site starting some time this September, to improve the quality of my writing. I guess this is as good as any day to start. Since this topic is open I may as well ask for any more specific feedback you or anyone else on the site might have.

Comment author: Wei_Dai 07 September 2012 09:40:15AM 4 points [-]

On the other hand I do think LW didn't really learn what I hoped it would from my old comments, so maybe this is more a problem of me sounding like a broken record because I have to keep repeating the same points, since this bores me I do it more poorly than before. So perhaps I need a new venue.

My suggestion to you is the same as the one I gave to wedrifid: write more posts relative to comments. Comments are for asking/answering questions, or fixing mistakes in other people's posts, or debates. If you think you have something to teach LW, please do it via posts, where you can organize your thoughts, put in the effort necessary to bridge the inferential gaps, and get the attention you deserve.

(If the suggestion doesn't make sense to you, I'd be interested to know why. As I said, I made the same suggestion to wedrifid before, but he didn't respond to agree or disagree, nor did he subsequently write more posts, which leaves me wondering why some LWers choose to write so few posts relative to comments.)

Comment author: wedrifid 07 September 2012 02:50:05AM *  1 point [-]

Don't multiply your anecdotes, since your source is just gwern getting banned for a while.

Excuse me? No it isn't. You are mind reading, and incorrectly. (Discussions at that time brought attention to other who didn't wish to bother with Razib.)

but I invite you to inspect the uninformed drivel one can read in the comment sections on some other quality blogs dealing with similar topics.

No. I don't want to compare to a known inferior solution and the endorsement being evaluated was that they were worth reading, not that elsewhere on the web is worse. There is a reason I don't tend to hang out in the comments sections of personal blogs. They aren't an environment that provides incentives for valuable comment contributions and neither lax moderation not vigorous moderation in defense of self interest produce particularly impressive outcomes. Actual 'moderate' and vaguely objective moderation is rare. Lesswrong's karma system is far superior and produces barely tolerable comment threads most of the time.

Comment author: [deleted] 07 September 2012 06:14:19AM *  1 point [-]

The karma system in itself is not what made this site interesting, not by a long stretch. While some very bad comments did make it through that now don't, Overcoming Bias before the karma system had interesting discussions as well.

The karma system is a key feature of what made LW what it is, but it isn't exceptional in this. Just as vital where the features of its demographics, the topics we chose, the norms and culture that developed. If any of those wash out LessWrong becomes nothing but a smaller suckier reddit.

Comment author: [deleted] 06 September 2012 05:35:37PM 1 point [-]

They are usually better. I'm not sure why he isn't wielding the moderator rod as harshly as usual, perhaps he is afraid of coming off as partisan?

Comment author: razib 06 September 2012 06:38:56PM *  4 points [-]

the explanation is banal. 10 hour days at my "day job" + i sleep 6 hours + and have a daughter. not much on the margin. i devote way more time to moderation of comments than a typical blogger as it is, so it shows when i cut back.

Fallout from Razib banning or driving away quality commenters has reached even here.

i don't see what that has to do with anything. LW people say stupid things all the time.

addendum: i don't have much experience on this forum, but i am friends with people associated with the berkeley/bay area LW group. as i said, LW people say stupid things all the time. but, LW people tend to not take it personally when you explain that they're being ignorant outside of domain, which is great. so my last comment wasn't really meant as negatively as it might have seemed. but the back & forth that i have/had with the LW set does not translate well onto my blog, where there is usually a domain-knowledge asymmetry (i'm pretty good at guessing the identity of commenters who know more than me, and usually excuse those from aggressive moderation, because i wouldn't know what to moderate).

Comment author: [deleted] 06 September 2012 07:04:52PM *  5 points [-]

There is a reason I usually state "the comments are well worth reading" when linking to your blog posts here. You are clearly doing something right, while there are of course false positives people can point to, the losses from those are far outweighed by the gains.

LW if anything is remarkably bad at this kind of gardening. We don't down vote well meaning but clueless commenter's enough and when we do one merely has to complain about being down voted to inch back into positive karma.

Comment author: wedrifid 08 September 2012 09:20:06AM *  2 points [-]

LW if anything is remarkably bad at this kind of gardening.

I agree, yet for some reason suspect that your ideal would see an entirely different subset of comments downvoted to oblivion and suspect I would just leave if you had your way (and that you would do likewise if I had my way). From what I have seen I'd also leave in an instant if Razib had that kind of power.

This is the advantage of having the moderation influence distributed (among multiple moderators or in this case just voting) rather than in the hands of one individual. Neither one of us has enough power to change the forum such that it is intolerable to the other. The failure mode only comes when the collective judgement is abysmal and even then it is less catastrophic to one ego holding sway.

Comment author: [deleted] 08 September 2012 09:43:24AM *  2 points [-]

Really? Honestly I think I would find a forum moderated by you well worth visiting and depending on how much time you put into it, might be much better than LW.

I think we probably agree on 90% of posts that should be down voted but aren't.

Comment author: wedrifid 08 September 2012 10:19:11AM *  1 point [-]

I think we probably agree on 90% of posts that should be down voted but aren't.

Almost certainly and likewise probably more agreement than between randomly selected individuals. The problem comes if any part of that 10% happens to include things that I am strongly averse to but which you consider ok and use. I wouldn't expect you to hang around if I started banning your comments---I certainly wouldn't take that kind of treatment from anyone (unless I was getting paid well).

Comment author: [deleted] 08 September 2012 10:30:53AM *  2 points [-]

I never understood people who get all offended and scream censorship if one or two of their posts get moderated while the vast majority are let through. If however you'd feel that a quarter or a third of my comments where objectionable I wouldn't bother commenting any more, though I might keep reading.

Comment author: wedrifid 08 September 2012 10:52:08AM *  3 points [-]

I never understood people who get all offended and scream censorship if one or two of their posts get moderated while the vast majority are let through.

I wouldn't accept too many more than, say, two or three a year that I reflectively endorsed even after judgement. But I wouldn't call it censorship. It's some guy with power exercising it with either (subjectively) poor judgement or personal opposition to me. It's not something I prefer to accept but I'm not going to abuse the word 'censorship'.

Comment author: razib 06 September 2012 07:44:58PM 1 point [-]

i wasn't expecting much from that thread. i was more curious about the rationale of the atheism+ proponents. i got confirmation of what i feared....

Comment author: [deleted] 02 September 2012 09:02:06AM *  2 points [-]

A short draft for an article where I criticize Yvain's Worst Argument in the World

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 03 September 2012 12:39:35AM 2 points [-]

Did you mean that to be "Worst Argument in the World"?

Comment author: see 01 September 2012 09:55:06PM 2 points [-]

Was reading up on the Flynn effect, and saw the claim it's too fast to reflect evolution. Is that really true? Yes, it's too fast, given the pressures, for what Darwin called natural selection, given the lack of anything coming along and dramatically killing off the less intelligent before they can reproduce. But that's not the only force of evolution; there's also sexual selection.

If it's become easier in the last 150 years for women to have surviving children by high-desirability mates, then we should, in fact, see a proportionate increase in the high-desirability characteristics. And since IQ and socioeconomic status are correlated, and SES is a known high-desirability characteristic, we would expect an increase in IQ accordingly, insofar as IQ is heritable.

And, in fact, there is a change in society that would do that — increasing urbanization. Not only have cities become healthy enough to have non-negative population RNIs for the first time in history, but they've also become the home of the majority of the human species for the first time in history. Studies of infidelity rates show it does, in fact, correlate fairly strongly with urbanization (probably for the logical reasons that increased population density increases opportunities and urban anonymity makes it easier to conceal from a mate).

So, the urbanization of the last 150 years increased successful infidelity. The usual models of sexual selection indicate that successful infidelity by women should result in high SES men having more children. IQ is correlated with high SES. IQ seems to be heritable in large part. And the period where we would expect high SES men to have more kids is matched by an increase in the general population's performance on tests of IQ.

I'm currently operating without good access to scientific journals to see if this has been considered and debunked, or not considered, or considered and put forward. But, at least sitting here just thinking about it without the resources to test it (or even model it effectively mathematically), it seems an increase in the genes that increase IQ as a result of sexual selection could be a plausible explanation of the Flynn Effect.

Comment author: John_Maxwell_IV 01 September 2012 11:12:57PM 12 points [-]

But there's also an opposing evolutionary pressure: educated women have fewer children.

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 02 September 2012 06:45:56AM 7 points [-]

The Reproduction of Intelligence attempts to quanitfy this effect:

Although a negative relationship between fertility and education has been described consistently in most countries of the world, less is known about the relationship between intelligence and reproductive outcomes. Also the paths through which intelligence influences reproductive outcomes are uncertain. The present study uses the NLSY79 to analyze the relationship of intelligence measured in 1980 with the number of children reported in 2004, when the respondents were between 39 and 47 years old. Intelligence is negatively related to the number of children, with partial correlations (age controlled) of −.156, −.069, −.235 and −.028 for White females, White males, Black females and Black males, respectively. This effect is related mainly to the g-factor. It is mediated in part by education and income, and to a lesser extent by the more “liberal” gender attitudes of more intelligent people. In the absence of migration and with constant environment, genetic selection would reduce the average IQ of the US population by about .8 points per generation.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 02 September 2012 07:19:41AM 5 points [-]

Shouldn't they be checking for number of grandchildren?

Comment author: JoshuaZ 02 September 2012 02:01:55AM 6 points [-]

I'd assign a low probability to this hypothesis. Most of the Flynn effect seems to occur on the lower end of the IQ spectrum moving upwards. Source. This is highly consistent with education, nutrition and diseases hypotheses, but it is difficult to see how to reconcile this with a sexual selection hypothesis.

Also, I'm not sure that your hypothesis fits with expected forms of infidelity. One commonly expected form of common infidelity would be generally with strong males while trying to get a resource rich males to think the children are there's If such infidelity is a common pattern, then one shouldn't expect much selection pressure for intelligence, if anything the opposite.

The fraction of the population which engages in infidelity even in urban environments is not that high. Infidelity rates in both genders are around 5-15%, but only about 3% of offspring have parentage that reflects infidelity. Source, so the selection impact can't be that large.

One thing worth noting though is that one of the pieces of evidence for disease mattering is that there's a correlation between high parasite load and lower average IQ, but your hypothesis would also cause one to expect such a correlation since reduced parasite load would be better correlated with better medicine and more functional urban environments in general. This is evidence in favor of your hypothesis.

I'm not aware of any obvious way to test your hypothesis. I'd be curious if you have any suggested things to look at or if anyone else has any ideas.

Comment author: see 02 September 2012 03:34:29AM 1 point [-]

Most of the Flynn effect seems to occur on the lower end of the IQ spectrum moving upwards. Source. This is highly consistent with education, nutrition and diseases hypotheses, but it is difficult to see how to reconcile this with a sexual selection hypothesis.

It reconciles quite well, actually.

The greater the genetically-determined status differential between a woman's husband and her a potential lover, the more differential advantage to the woman's offspring in replacing the husband's genes with those of a higher-quality male. So the lower the status of the husband, the greater the incentive to replace his genes with another's.

Assuming for a moment IQ is 100% heritable and IQ is linear in advantage, the woman with an IQ of 85 and a husband of IQ 85 will see her kids have an IQ of 85 if she's faithful, and 115 with a lover of 145, for a net advantage to her kids of +30 IQ if she strays. If a woman and her husband are IQ 100, the same lover will raise the IQ +22.5; her kids get less advantage than Mrs. 85. In the case of Mr & Mrs. IQ 115, the advantage is only +15. For Mr & Mrs. IQ 130, the advantage to cheating is only +7.5. For Mr. & Mrs. IQ 145, cheating with a lover of IQ 145 doesn't benefit her kids at all, while for Mr & Mrs. IQ 160, she wants to avoid having kids by a lover of IQ 145.

So, it is precisely the women on the low end that have the greater incentive to cheat "up", which we would expect would result in more cheating, and thus the low end where IQs would increase the most.

Also, the lower status the woman's husband, the easier it is to find a willing lover of higher status, and thus the greater the opportunity to replace the husband's genes with another's. Mrs. 85 can find a lover with IQ 100 more easily than Mrs. 100 can find a lover with IQ 115, even though the both have the same incentive to find a lover of +15 IQ points. Mrs. 115 has even more difficulty finding a lover of IQ 130, and so on.

So, it is precisely the women on the low end that have the greater opportunities to cheat "up", which we would expect would result in more cheating, and thus the low end where IQs would increase the most.

One commonly expected form of common infidelity would be generally with strong males while trying to get a resource rich males to think the children are there's

Assuming monogamous and assortative marriage, there's a serious limit to how high resource/high status a male a woman can marry relative to her own status. Assuming she's already landed the best husband she can manage, it is then in her subsequent interest to acquire the best genes for her kids she can. Insofar as better genes result in higher status, this would translate to favoring high-status males as lovers to produce kids supported by the best-she-can-manage husband. If status correlates better with IQ rather than strength in human societies, well, we'd expect that to select for IQ.

The fraction of the population which engages in infidelity even in urban environments is not that high. Infidelity rates in both genders are around 5-15%, but only about 3% of offspring have parentage that reflects infidelity.

Ahah. My data on this was substantially out-of-date. That is a serious blow to the hypothesis.

(Hmm. Except that in modern welfare states, the government has replaced the husband as supporter on the low end of the socioeconomic ladder, so maybe the effect is now most strongly happening among the children unmarried women, which would cause a drop-off in children of infidelity corresponding to the rise of out-of-wedlock births? Meh.)

I'm not aware of any obvious way to test your hypothesis.

Yeah, me neither.

Comment author: Metus 03 September 2012 06:05:57PM 2 points [-]

A test would be to look wether there is a correlation between cheating and IQ and whether this correlation is influenced by sex. Also, asymetrical incidence of STDs with respect to the sexes could also be an indicator.

Comment author: shminux 02 September 2012 03:36:58AM 5 points [-]

How would you test this model?

Comment author: Epiphany 02 September 2012 12:44:19AM *  5 points [-]

There are so many other factors, you're probably getting mostly noise there. For instance: I read somewhere that depending on whether babies drink breast milk or formula, they may lose 10 points (to formula) - the reason stated was lack of omega 3. What about lead paint chips? We have banned lead, that should increase IQ - after an initial decrease when lead paint began to be used. (There'd be a similar increase / decrease cycle with the invention of formula.) The point of these two is that as we learn more, we may be preventing a lot of things that previously caused children brain damage. And then there are other health factors which we've improved. In the great depression, I read 10% of the population starved to death. Starvation, for those who survive it, can cause brain damage. Were there other starvations before this, that had stopped happening? When did helmets become popular for people riding bicycles and skateboards and such?

There are just too many factors.

Heh, and I read somewhere that here in America, the Flynn effect has stopped. O.O

Comment author: Douglas_Knight 02 September 2012 04:40:07AM 4 points [-]

When people say that it's "too fast," they are making a quantitative claim. The Flynn effect is a standard deviation per generation. Under your scenario of no selection on women, this would require that the bottom half of the bell curve to have no biological children. 50% cuckoldry, perfectly correlated with IQ? Even men who think they've been cuckolded don't have that high a rate.

Comment author: David_Gerard 02 September 2012 08:50:46PM 1 point [-]
Comment author: pjeby 14 September 2012 02:39:01AM 1 point [-]

Anybody know what happened to user RSS feeds? It used to be you could get them with "lesswrong.com/user/username.rss", but that now says no such page.

Comment author: MileyCyrus 08 September 2012 02:44:21PM 1 point [-]

Poll: What is the smallest portion than be considered a "vast majority" of the whole? What about a "vast, vast majority"?

Comment author: TheOtherDave 08 September 2012 04:02:53PM 3 points [-]

You're asking a question about language use here, yes?

Depends on the context.
If 90% of U.S.voters voted for a particular policy proposal I would comfortably describe that as a "vast majority", but if only 90% of sulfur atoms remained in an unstoppered container of sulfur at STP I would describe that as a "startlingly small percentage".

On a minute's thought, I'd say 2 standard deviations above mean portion-size for the context under discussion.

Comment author: AandNot-A 07 September 2012 11:04:48AM 1 point [-]

2 separate related comments:

1) I'm moving to Vienna on the 25th. If there exist lesswrongers there I'd be most happy to meet them.

2) Moving strikes me as a great opportunity to develop positive, life-enchancing habits. If anyone has any literature or tips on this i'd greatly appreciate it

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 07 September 2012 08:35:40AM 1 point [-]
Comment author: Risto_Saarelma 07 September 2012 06:37:30AM *  1 point [-]

Peter Watts considers the wisdom of The Conspiracy.

Comment author: Alejandro1 06 September 2012 03:48:00PM *  1 point [-]

Two great posts from Julian Sanchez: Intellectual Strategies: Precisification and Elimination, and its follow-up On Partly Verbal Disputes. Related to our conception of "Rationalist Taboo", and to Yvain's Worst Argument in the World post.

Sample quote:

So, for instance, you may recall a little flurry of debate a while back over the Republican rhetorical trope of characterizing Social Security as a Ponzi scheme, and the ensuing boomlet of essays and blog posts vehemently insisting that obviously the program is or is not an instance of one. A more productive frame might have been: In what respects can Social Security be meaningfully analogized to the classic Ponzi scheme, in what respects does that analogy break down, and on which dimensions would these similarities render the two susceptible to the same concerns or objections? That’s not a frame that lends itself to catchy slogans, and probably any thoughtful person who participated in that debate would readily agree that this was the real question under dispute all along. But I suspect you get a different and more instructive dialogue lingering a bit in that matrix of similarities and differences, rather than seeing it as a brief waystation on the road to the crucial all-things-considered verdict on whether it ultimately “is” or “isn’t.”

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 05 September 2012 06:08:24AM 1 point [-]

Trying to measure the shadow economy

People thinking hard about measuring something they have no exact way of checking.

Comment author: blogospheroid 02 September 2012 08:47:50AM 1 point [-]

Sorry for missing the stupid questions thread, but since the sequences didn't have something direct about WBE, I thought Open thread might be a better place to ask this question.

I want to know how is the fidelity of Whole Brain Emulation expected to be empirically tested, other than replication of taught behaviour ?

After uploading a rat, would someone look at the emulation of its lifetime and say," I really knew this rat. This is that rat alone and no one else".

Would only trained behaviour replication be the empirical standard? What would that mean in terms of emulating more complex beings, who might have their own thoughts other than the behaviours taught to them? Please point me to any literature on the same. I checked the WBE roadmap and replication of trained behaviour seems to be the only way mentioned there.

Comment author: MileyCyrus 02 September 2012 02:37:29PM 2 points [-]

You didn't miss the stupid questions thread, you can still post there. It doesn't really matter how old a thread is.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 02 September 2012 02:38:33PM 1 point [-]

People with pet rats notice personality differences.

Comment author: wedrifid 02 September 2012 04:14:26PM 5 points [-]

People with pet rats notice personality differences.

Rats do have personality differences and I would expect people to 'notice' differences in personality even if they didn't exist.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 13 September 2012 11:04:24PM 0 points [-]

Any thoughts, information, or research about selective effects of arranged marriages?

Comment author: [deleted] 13 September 2012 03:42:57PM 0 points [-]