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faul_sname comments on Internal Availability - Less Wrong Discussion
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I'm still unsure of what you're actually saying. Perhaps you're talking about some sort of a "plausibility heuristic", where we look for instances of something in our model of the world, not just our experiences. That seems trivial, but that's not necessarily a bad thing (I would prefer to see more stuff here that seems really obvious to people, because those few times it's not obvious to everyone tend to be very valuable). If you're saying something else, I'm still not getting it.
Take for example your analysis of the poker hand I partially described. You give 3 possibilities for what the truth of it may be. Are there any other possibilities? Maybe the player is bluffing to gain the reputation of a bluffer? Maybe she mistook a 4 for an ace (it happened to me once...)? Maybe aliens hijacked her brain?
It would be impossible to enumerate or notice all the possibilities, but fortunately we don't have to. We make only the most likely and important ones available.