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ArisKatsaris comments on Is Omega Impossible? Can we even ask? - Less Wrong Discussion
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A further thing to note: If Eliezer models other people as either significantly overestimating or significantly understimating the probability he'll one-box against them, both possibilities increase the probability he'll actually two-box against them.
So it all depends on Eliezer's model of other people's model of Eliezer's model of their model. Insert The Princess Bride reference. :-)
Or at least your model of Eliezer models other people modeling his model of them. He may go one level deeper and model other people's model of his model of other people's model of his model of them, or (more likely) not bother and just use general heuristics. Because modeling breaks down around one or two layers of recursion most of the time.