TheOtherDave comments on Open Thread, December 1-15, 2012 - Less Wrong Discussion
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I have always expected computers that were as able to navigate a car to a typical real-world destination as an average human driver to be easier to build than computers that were as able to manage a typical real-world conversation as an average human native speaker.
That said, there's a huge range of goalposts in the realm of "natural language", some of which I expected to be a lot easier than they seem to be.