Update on Kim Suozzi (cancer patient in want of cryonics)

ahartell

Kim Suozzi was a neuroscience student with brain cancer who wanted to be cryonically preserved but lacked the funds. She appealed to reddit and a foundation was set up, called the Society for Venturism. Enough money was raised, and when she died on the January 17th, she was preserved by Alcor.

I wasn't sure if I should post about this, but I was glad to see that enough money was raised and it was discussed on LessWrong here, here, and here.

Source

Edit: It looks like Alcor actually worked with her to lower the costs, and waived some of the fees.

Edit 2: The Society for Venturism has been around for a while, and wasn't set up just for her.

Source

Edit: It looks like Alcor actually worked with her to lower the costs, and waived some of the fees.

Edit 2: The Society for Venturism has been around for a while, and wasn't set up just for her.

This is a rather important point. How do we get more info on it? You're the first halfway-sane person I've ever heard put the median at 2100.

From my perspective if you told me that in actual fact AGI had been developed in 2120 (a bit of a ways after your median) despite the lack of any great catastrophes, I would update in the direction of believing all of the following:

Rogue biotech hadn't actually been a danger. You didn't make any strong predictions about this because it was outside your conditional; I don't know much about it either. Basically I'm just noting it down. Also, no total global worse-than-Greece collapse, no nuclear-proliferated war brought on by global warming, etc.
Moore's Law had come to a nearly complete permanent halt or slowdown no more than 10-20 years after 2013.
AI academia was Great Stagnating (this is relatively easy to believe)
Machine learning techniques that actually had non-stagnat-y people pushing on them for stock-market trading also plateaued, or weren't published, or never AGI-generalized.
All the Foresight people were really really optimistic about nanotech, nobody cracked protein folding, or that field Great Stagnated somehow... the nanotech-related news I see, especially about protein folding, doesn't seem to square with this, but perhaps the press releases are exaggerated.
Large updates in the direction of global economic slowdown, patent wars kill innovation everywhere, corruption of universities even worse than we think, even fewer smart people try to go into real tech innovation, etcetera.
Biotech stays regulation-locked forever - not too hard to believe.
Anders Sandberg is wrong about basically everything to do with uploading.

It seems like I'd have to execute a lot of updates. How do we resolve this?

This is puzzling.

I had thought that the question of AI timelines was so central that the core SI research community would have long since Aumannated and come to a consensus probability distribution.

Anyway, good you're doing it now.

6Shmi14y

I'm wondering why this is stated as a conjunction. Would a single failure here really result in an early AGI development?

16CarlShulman14y

Well atom-size features are scheduled to come along on that time-scale, believed to mark the end of scaling feature size downwards. That has been an essential part of Moore's law all along the way. Without it, one has to instead do things like use more efficient materials at the same size, new architectural designs, new cooling, etc. That's a big change in the underlying mechanisms of electronics improvement, and a pretty reasonable place for the trend to go awry, although it also wouldn't be surprising if it kept going for some time longer. [...] The so-called "Great Stagnation" isn't actually a stagnation, it's mainly just compounding growth at a slower rate. How much of the remaining distance to AGI do you think was covered 2002-2012? 1992-2002? [...] Haven't they been so far? In any case, nanotechnology can't shrink feature sizes below atomic scale, and that's already coming up via conventional technology. Also, if the world is one where computation is energy-limited, denser computers that use more energy in a smaller space aren't obviously that helpful. [...] Could you give some examples of what you had in mind? [...] Well, there is demographic decline: rich country populations are shrinking. China is shrinking even faster, although bringing in its youth into the innovation sectors may help a lot. [...] Say biotech genetic engineering methods are developed in the next 10-20 years, heavily implemented 10 years later, and the kids hit their productive prime 20 years after that. Then they go faster, but how much faster? That's a fast biotech trajectory to enhanced intelligence, but the fruit mostly fall in the last quarter of the century. [...] See 15:30 of this talk, Anders' Monte Carlo simulation (assumptions debatable, obviously) is a wide curve with a center around 2075. Separately Anders expresses nontrivial uncertainty about the brain model/cognitive neuroscience step, setting aside the views of the non-Anders population. [...] vs [...] I sa

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Update on Kim Suozzi (cancer patient in want of cryonics)

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Update on Kim Suozzi (cancer patient in want of cryonics)

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