Moore's Law had come to a nearly complete permanent halt or slowdown no more than 10-20 years after 2013

Well atom-size features are scheduled to come along on that time-scale, believed to mark the end of scaling feature size downwards. That has been an essential part of Moore's law all along the way. Without it, one has to instead do things like use more efficient materials at the same size, new architectural designs, new cooling, etc. That's a big change in the underlying mechanisms of electronics improvement, and a pretty reasonable place for the trend to go awry, although it also wouldn't be surprising if it kept going for some time longer.

AI academia was Great Stagnating (this is relatively easy to believe)

The so-called "Great Stagnation" isn't actually a stagnation, it's mainly just compounding growth at a slower rate. How much of the remaining distance to AGI do you think was covered 2002-2012? 1992-2002?

All the Foresight people were really really optimistic about nanotech

Haven't they been so far?

In any case, nanotechnology can't shrink feature sizes below atomic scale, and that's already coming up via conventional technology. Also, if the world is one where computation is energy-limited, denser computers that use more energy in a smaller space aren't obviously that helpful.

perhaps the press releases are exaggerated

Could you give some examples of what you had in mind?

Large updates in the direction of global economic slowdown, patent wars kill innovation everywhere, corruption of universities even worse than we think, even fewer smart people try to go into real tech innovation, etc.

Well, there is demographic decline: rich country populations are shrinking. China is shrinking even faster, although bringing in its youth into the innovation sectors may help a lot.

Biotech stays regulation-locked forever - not too hard to believe.

Say biotech genetic engineering methods are developed in the next 10-20 years, heavily implemented 10 years later, and the kids hit their productive prime 20 years after that. Then they go faster, but how much faster? That's a fast biotech trajectory to enhanced intelligence, but the fruit mostly fall in the last quarter of the century.

Anders Sandberg is wrong about basically everything to do with uploading.

See 15:30 of this talk, Anders' Monte Carlo simulation (assumptions debatable, obviously) is a wide curve with a center around 2075. Separately Anders expresses nontrivial uncertainty about the brain model/cognitive neuroscience step, setting aside the views of the non-Anders population.

You're the first halfway-sane person I've ever heard put the median at 2100.

vs

I didn't say 87 years, but closer to 87 than 32 (or 16, for Kurzweil's prediction of a Turing-Test passing AI).

I said "near the end of the century" contrasted to a prediction of intelligence explosion in 2045.

This is puzzling.

I had thought that the question of AI timelines was so central that the core SI research community would have long since Aumannated and come to a consensus probability distribution.

Anyway, good you're doing it now.

I'm wondering why this is stated as a conjunction. Would a single failure here really result in an early AGI development?