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NancyLebovitz comments on Open Thread, March 1-15, 2013 - Less Wrong Discussion
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I recommend Taleb's The Black Swan. The major premise is that people tend to underestimate the likelihood of weird events. It's not that they can predict any particular weird event, it's about overall likelihood of weird events with large consequences.
Another way of stating it in this circumstance: there are so many different things that we would consider ourselves lucky to see or that we would notice as unusual that even if the probability of any one of them is low the probability that we see something isn't that low.
I second the book recommendation by the way.