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orthonormal comments on Being Half-Rational About Pascal's Wager is Even Worse - Less Wrong Discussion

18 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 18 April 2013 05:20AM

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Tags: heroic_epistemology pascal

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Comment author: orthonormal 18 April 2013 02:20:38PM 4 points [-]

No, he's saying that 10% and 1% are non-Pascalian probabilities for x-risks, but that 1-in-10,000 is effectively Pascalian.

Comment author: ciphergoth 18 April 2013 08:35:27PM 4 points [-]

I don't think it counts as "Pascalian" until it starts to scrape below the threshold of probabilities you can meaningfully assert about propositions. If we were basically assured of a bright astronomical future so long as person X doesn't win the lottery, I wouldn't say that worrying that X might win the lottery was a Pascalian risk.

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