You're looking at Less Wrong's discussion board. This includes all posts, including those that haven't been promoted to the front page yet. For more information, see About Less Wrong.

VincentYu comments on Open thread for January 1-7, 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion

2 Post author: NancyLebovitz 01 January 2014 03:54PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (142)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: VincentYu 04 January 2014 02:53:47AM *  1 point [-]

Full paper: Jones et al. (2013)

See the label for Figure 1. I'm not sure why army1987 retracted his comment, but he is correct: the y-axis is logarithmic for the survivorship curve. So the graph actually confirms your expectation and shows an exponential decrease in population.

(Unfortunately, the graph label in the National Geographic article is just wrong—there is no reasonable interpretation under which the logarithmic survivorship curve can be interpreted as a raw proportion.)

Comment author: [deleted] 04 January 2014 10:18:30AM *  1 point [-]

I'm not sure why army1987 retracted his comment,

On the last panel (that for hypericum) of the figure on the NatGeo page the red curve doesn't look like the negative derivative of the gray curve, so I assumed I was missing something.