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gedymin comments on Open Thread for January 8 - 16 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion

5 Post author: tut 08 January 2014 12:14PM

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Comment author: gedymin 13 January 2014 09:22:46PM 0 points [-]

Do you mean "hypothesis" as something that solves the problem?

If yes, then there's a problem. Either your beliefs are inconsistent (as they don't add up to 100%), or the hypotheses cannot be independent. Assuming your beliefs are consistent, your best best would be to figure out what's the correlation between these hypothesis is between choosing one to test. For example, C could be correlated with A. Choosing to pursue A (or C) would then give information about C (or A) as well.

If no, the amount of the information you'll get from testing them is incomparable. For example, B could be about a relatively minor thing, while A about 99% of the solution.