Many of you here have likely heard of Bitcoin, and maybe know something about it.
Earlier today, a story broke that a reporter had apparently tracked down the real Satoshi Nakamoto, infamous creator of the Bitcoin protocol.
This seems like an excellent opportunity to practice our Bayesian updating!
So, how likely do you think it is that this man is the founder of Bitcoin? What do you believe and why?
What predictions are we making? How will this bet (with ourselves) be resolved?
I mostly expect that I'll never know for sure. I think it's somewhat unlikely that this guy is (or was) a billionaire without showing it or anyone (including his family) knowing it.
Well, let's see you try selling an amount of bitcoins currently valued at a billion dollars without tanking the market price. :P