A reasonable person would update both the probability that he is in a simulation and the probability that he is insane to be a good deal higher, at the expense of the hypothesis "I am sane and not in a simulation". That fact probably wouldn't be changed much if he doubted his sanity already.
A reasonable person would update both the probability that he is in a simulation and the probability that he is insane to be a good deal higher, at the expense of the hypothesis "I am sane and not in a simulation".
Yes I agree. But if he already thinks there is a good chance he is insane, then it seems to me most of the extra probability will go to that hypothesis alone.
For example, if you think there is a 1 in 100 chance that you are in a simulation and a 1 in 10 chance that you are insane; and then you get a visit from Mr. Simulator, then ar...
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