Well, it depends what you mean by "most of the extra probability" - a change from 50% to 60% probability represents a smaller change in perceived amount of evidence than from 1% to 5%. I think meeting one of the dark lords of the matrix should probably weigh more as evidence for being in a simulation than for being insane, or at worst it should be 50/50 for each hypothesis.
Certainly the concepts can be conceptually separated (unless you put more meaning into that than I'm seeing), although I object to calling the one question more fundamental than the other.
Well, it depends what you mean by "most of the extra probability" - a change from 50% to 60% probability represents a smaller change in perceived amount of evidence than from 1% to 5%. I think meeting one of the dark lords of the matrix should probably weigh more as evidence for being in a simulation than for being insane, or at worst it should be 50/50 for each hypothesis.
I disagree, although admittedly I am too lazy to do the actual calculation. Basically you can divide things up into 3 possibilities: (1) you are sane and not in a simulati...
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.