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gwern comments on Open thread, 16-22 June 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion

2 Post author: David_Gerard 16 June 2014 01:12PM

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Comment author: gwern 05 July 2014 03:39:10PM *  2 points [-]

The NYT provides a nifty animated graphic visualizing the large sampling error associated with the monthly jobs report: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/02/upshot/how-not-to-be-misled-by-the-jobs-report.html (second screen). What's nice about it is that you can watch the various scenarios' random draws and see how easily you fall into pattern recognition mode, despite knowing it's a simulation.

Not being seduced by good-looking point estimates is one of those things you'd hope everyone would learn as part of basic statistical literacy, but seems to be very rare and I think animations like this are (like xkcd cartoons) the best hope of fixing that particular cognitive bias.