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ChristianKl comments on Carbon dioxide, climate sensitivity, feedbacks, and the historical record: a cursory examination of the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) hypothesis - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (11)
When it comes to this debate, I would really like to see more predictions from climate scientists that are about the future and not about the past. Having a government funded prediction market where every qualified phd student gets a certain amount of investment capital would be great.
Great point. I had come to a similar conclusion a while back, and Googled around to see if others had come up with the idea.
I came across this post by Robin Hanson:
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/11/its-news-on-academia-not-climate.html
(see the last two paras, and note he links to some people critiquing his idea in the last sentence).
I might discuss the possibilities for prediction markets in a later post.