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Stefan_Schubert comments on Raven paradox settled to my satisfaction - Less Wrong Discussion
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I'm sorry but no, that is not enough. I want clear and reasonably detailed reasons for why the mainstream is wrong in posts like this. Some very smart people have worked on this problem and you need to at least comment on their views in order to be taken seriously by me.
Thank you for helping me understand where you're coming from, but since this is a simple application of probabilistic reasoning I think it stands fine on its own merits.