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Jurily comments on Open thread, 25-31 August 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Is there a name for the following pattern?
I seem to run into this a lot lately, but the alternative of assuming I'm correct seems even worse. I'm also often not in a position to ask about the source of their confidence.
Accurately judging the confidence that other people have in their own judgements isn't easy. It can be that the other person just doesn't care whether they are wrong.
In political discussions people often argue their positions quite strongly even if they don't have good evidence for them. You might mistake that strong arguing as confidence when it's rather the opposite.
Fight, flight and freeze responses are all instances of fear but look quite different. Especially shy people often confuse a fight response with confidence when it isn't.
Would you care to post some predictions?
I didn't explicitly make a prediction, but it sounds like https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8202234 would be an instance of the pattern.