DanielLC comments on I Want To Believe: Rational Edition - Less Wrong Discussion
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Self-confidence also has beneficial social effects, since it signals that you are capable of winning. As a result, people tend to be more self-confident than can be rationally justified, and they're also built to counteract those effects. For example, they are risk-averse. If you are only as confident as is rationally justified, but you are still risk averse etc., you will avoid taking actions that would benefit you.