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maxikov comments on I Want To Believe: Rational Edition - Less Wrong Discussion

4 Post author: 27chaos 18 November 2014 08:00PM

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Tags: self-fulfilling darkarts advice prophecy alief dark belief arts

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Comment author: maxikov 19 November 2014 12:22:17PM 2 points [-]

Unfounded self-confidence (or any unfounded belief) is very harmful.

Citation needed. Bluff (i.e. unfounded confidence) seems to be a very efficient strategy in many games. Apparently, even in chess:

UNIDENTIFIED MALE #2: Rook to D1.

CAMPBELL: And this particular move was really bad, and so it caused us to give up the game right away.

FOO: This really bad move confused Kasparov. Murray says he heard Kasparov's team stayed up that night trying to analyze the logic behind that move - what it meant. The only thing was - there was no logic.

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