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IlyaShpitser comments on Open thread, Dec. 1 - Dec. 7, 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion
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I think Russia's conventional army today would fold in a matter of weeks. Yes I know who else said that.
It would be bloody though, on both sides.
Lenin's peace with Germany in WW1 isn't even applicable to the saying about land wars in Asia, as only the European part of Russia was a part of the theatre. The historically relevant bit of Russia is in Europe both culturally and geographically. Maybe the saying should be "don't get involved in land wars with Russia." China was partitioned just fine back in the day. Commodore Perry got what he wanted from Japan just by showing up in a fancy ship, right? The East India Company did ok for a while, etc.
You're right that the WW1 invasion was entirely in the European part of Russia... but then, so were the Napoleonic and WW2 invasions. And the Crimea too, the point in question.
And you are of course quite right that lots of people have successfully invaded Asia by land, from Alexander onwards. I think the saying is nonsense, relying entirely on a highly selective reading of history.
I think that facing an Eastern Front meatgrinder over some intra-Slav land squabble, the West's political will today would fold faster.
The saying, I think, is a quote from Princess Bride and at the time the relevant war was Vietnam (and to a lesser degree, Korea).
I feel like Princess Bride was probably repeating Baby Boomer wisdom from the anti-Vietnam protests. A quick Googling attributes the quote to Douglas MacArthur, of all people(who fought no less than three of them, which makes me wonder...)