If it ever got to a war, I think they'd fight it mostly straight, and they'd lose badly.

That all depends on what kind of war we are talking about. The biggest issue for the West is political will, and everyone knows it. Even in a full-out non-nuclear war, it's not going to be like running tanks at full speed through the desert to Baghdad. Russia's goal would be to bog down NATO army and engage in exchange of heavy casualties. If it manages to do this, it wins -- it doesn't need clear battlefield victories.