What should my prior be for an offer that looks too good to be true to be actually true? I was wondering after I saw a lot of arguing online over whether a certain company was a scam or not. This is a prior, so before factoring in things like media attention or base country or how loud people like and/or denounce it or anything else. Although a guess on how much each of those factors should affect the rate would be useful too.
There's a large range between excellent company and scam company. Many companies are earnestly but poorly run, or not-scams-per-se but concealing financial issues. Others seem too-good-to-be-true but really are that good.
As a rule, companies make offers that are just good enough to get a yes. My prior would be that too-good-to-be-true always deserves extra scrutiny, and is probably somehow deceptive or high-risk if the terms don't make a guarantee (for instance, equity and deferred compensation in a job offer could never materialize). The other possibility...
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