What should my prior be for an offer that looks too good to be true to be actually true?
Recall the old poker wisdom: every game has a mark. If you are sitting in a poker game and you don't know who the mark is, chance are it's you.
Are you trying to say epsilon? I think it's higher than that, if only because only semi-believable offers are likely to be made in the first place.
Also, all those calculations are done after the prior. Perhaps I should have included how well I understand the business model in the list of factors?
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
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