Are you trying to say epsilon? I think it's higher than that, if only because only semi-believable offers are likely to be made in the first place.
Also, all those calculations are done after the prior. Perhaps I should have included how well I understand the business model in the list of factors?
Well, the general answer is, as usual, "it depends". If you are talking about your prior before any offer-specific information, I think it should be pretty low. Once you've heard the offer and, maybe, looked a bit into it, the prior isn't very relevant any more, presumably you have a bunch of information/evidence at this point which should weigh in more heavily than the prior.
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
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