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Punoxysm comments on Open thread, Dec. 22 - Dec. 28, 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion

5 Post author: Gondolinian 22 December 2014 02:34AM

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Comment author: Punoxysm 23 December 2014 06:22:42PM 3 points [-]

Well, you could invest your own money. Most strategies benefit from using small amount of cash, since being able to take advantage of small volume opportunities often trumps higher relative execution costs. Register your track record and start recruiting investors.

You can also trade with your own strategies at companies that let you use a mis of your money and theirs, and provide some resources. Typically, traders at these companies aren't executing pure softwares strategies, so "stealing" their methods doesn't have much point.

You could also go to people with established reputations in academic or quantitative finance and show them enough of your method to convince them you're legit, but not so much they can copy it, then have them lend their reputation.

A superhuman AGI could accumulate tremendous financial resources; to do so most effectively it would need access to as many feeds and exchanges as possible, so some kind of shell company would buy those for it. I'm not sure to what extent a finance-specialist AI that achieves superhuman performance is really easier to make than a superhuman AGI; and bear in mind that it could lose its edge quickly.

Comment author: skeptical_lurker 24 December 2014 11:34:49PM 0 points [-]

You can also trade with your own strategies at companies that let you use a mis of your money and theirs, and provide some resources.

I'm not sure I follow you, do you mean leverage or something else?

You could also go to people with established reputations in academic or quantitative finance and show them enough of your method to convince them you're legit, but not so much they can copy it, then have them lend their reputation.

Any information about a method narrows the hypothesis space, so I'm not sure this is possible. But discussion with academics, who presumably are not actually trading is an interesting idea.

I'm not sure to what extent a finance-specialist AI that achieves superhuman performance is really easier to make than a superhuman AGI

Its not at all obvious whether its easier or not - if AI can be broken down into subsystems, such as "planning" "hypothosis generation" and "predictions" then it is a matter of solving just the prediction subsystem, which is of course easier than solving all the other problems as well. OTOH, "hypothosis generation" could be an integral part of prediction, and the subsystems might not be able to operate independently.