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is4junk comments on Open thread, Dec. 22 - Dec. 28, 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Does anyone feel that cryogenics is like a bad lottery? A ticket costs thousands of dollars and the chance to win is unknown. Even worse, if you do 'win' it is not clear what you win (your prize: here is a zombie that thinks it is you) or when you win it.
Well, somewhat, but at least unlike a lottery it's not capped so that the house always wins.
Yes, it has some benefits that normal lotteries don't. In addition, the ticket price should go down with time and more participants. Maybe the lottery analogy isn't ideal.
Not a lottery, more like an insurance policy (which it usually is, literally) without a clear description of benefits. On a related note, I'd take a zombie who thinks it is me over no traces of me any day.
Why?
Why is a zombie that thinks it's you preferable to a zombie that doesn't?
Because then it's not a zombie, it's me, as far as I'm concerned, in a zombie body. (I assume that most of my memories and my personality is preserved between after reanimation.)
Oh! You mean a zombie-zombie, not a p-zombie.
Hah!
I don't know what would constitute a p-zombie, in any context. I was just using the terminology of the comment I replied to, Presumably calling the hypothetical entity which inherits my identity a zombie.
Instead of "unknown" pick a number. What the percentage that you believe it would work? Then go and calculate expected payoffs based on the price.
When I think about it I end up with a bad drake equation for both the 'win' and the 'outcome payoff'. In the drake equation you get to start off with the number of planets in the universe.
When you win is also interesting. Being revived 1 year after death should be worth more then 1m years after death.
Previous discussion of Drake-style equations for cryonics: http://lesswrong.com/lw/fz9
Thanks. This is exactly what I was looking for.
Why? If you assume progress, wouldn't you want to be revived into a more advanced society rather than the same old mess?
If you're revived 1 year after death the people you care about are probably still around, you probably have useful job skills, you may be able to recover some of your old property, etc.
I understand that. But what you are losing is the chance of being reborn, ahem, in a better place.
It's an interesting choice, driven, I assume, by risk aversion and desire for novelty. Probably different people will choose differently.
Not necessarily: Once it's proven that Cryonics works and people can be revived presumably if you can afford it you can just request to be refrozen and then woken up at a later date.
This may lead to its own problems
How much use is a better place to you if you can't understand it? I'd rather live through the intervening years so I can grow into the better future.