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ike comments on Open thread, Dec. 22 - Dec. 28, 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion
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I'm not using this as a decision maker end-all, I'm using it to define the reference class to get a prior. All those questions are calculated afterwards. I'm trying to define the "too-good" category, not define something that would discriminate between scams and non-scams.
I think it's a poor reference class.
The core question isn't whether something is too good to be true, but whether it's reasonable that an opportunity like that exists without information being hidden from you.