gwern comments on Open thread, Jan. 12 - Jan. 18, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Image recognition, courtesy of the deep learning revolution & Moore's Law for GPUs, seems near reaching human parity. The latest paper is "Deep Image: Scaling up Image Recognition", Wu et al 2015 (Baidu):
For another comparison, on pg9 Table 3 shows past performance. In 2012, the best performer reached 16.42%; 2013 knocked it down to 11.74%, and 2014 to 6.66% or to 5.98% depending on how much of a stickler you want to be; leaving ~0.8% left.
EDIT: Google may have already beaten 5.98% with a 5.5% (and thus halved the remaining difference to 0.4%), according to a commenter on HN, "smhx":
To update: the latest version of the Baidu paper now claims to have gone from the 5.98% above to 4.58%.
EDIT: on 2 June, a notification (Reddit discussion) was posted; apparently the Baidu team made far more than the usual number of submissions to test how their neural network was performing on the held-out ImageNet sample. This is problematic because it means that some amount of their performance gain is probably due to overfitting (tweak a setting, submit, see if performance improves, repeat). The Google team is not accused of doing this, so probably the true state-of-the-art error rate is somewhere between the 3rd Baidu version and the last Google rate.