The 538 article is exactly the kind of context-free argument that justly gives 'statistics' and 'rationalism' a bad name. Yes, in game-theoretic terms you want to pass a certain amount of the time. Yes, there is a good argument for calling pass on that specific down. But the issue is not whether 'pass' in the abstract was a good decision, but whether the specific play-calling actions in their particular context were good. And they were not. They were indefensible.
Yes, that play normally doesn't result in an interception. Yes, there's an element of bad luck there. But it's also an example of really poor decision-making that ended up with Seattle essentially running the play New England would have chosen for them. They screwed up, and it's embarrassing seeing the lengths people go to to defend the indefensible.
I would recommend this article highly for more depth.
The 538 article is exactly the kind of context-free argument that justly gives 'statistics' and 'rationalism' a bad name.
Are you sure? That sounds exaggerated. It definitely wasn't context-free. Some examples:
"Let’s spot the Pats some yards, then, and assume the Patriots win1 about as often as a typical team in the AFA model would2 if they started on the 40-yard line. That would give them a 14 percent chance. Maybe that’s generous, but we’re looking for an upper bound."
"But the Seahawks don’t have an average rusher; they have Beast Mo
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
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