The 538 article is exactly the kind of context-free argument that justly gives 'statistics' and 'rationalism' a bad name.
Are you sure? That sounds exaggerated. It definitely wasn't context-free. Some examples:
"Let’s spot the Pats some yards, then, and assume the Patriots win1 about as often as a typical team in the AFA model would2 if they started on the 40-yard line. That would give them a 14 percent chance. Maybe that’s generous, but we’re looking for an upper bound."
"But the Seahawks don’t have an average rusher; they have Beast Mode..."
Firstly, Seattle went out in a 3 WR group, thinking that this would get New England out of goal-line defense (and thus make it easier for the run play). This didn't work, and they were foolish to think it would. This put Seattle in an awkward position where they would either have to run without enough blockers, or put the ball in the hands of poor players.
An awkward position? They couldn't have ran on all three plays and if you have to have a pass play, 3 WR against a goal line defense is a good place to use your passing play.
Are you sure? That sounds exaggerated. It definitely wasn't context-free. Some examples:
None of which consider the specific pass play that they chose to run, nor the specifics of the personnel matchup.
An awkward position? They couldn't have ran on all three plays and if you have to have a pass play, 3 WR against a goal line defense is a good place to use your passing play.
In a vacuum, it could be a good place! But in the specific context it wasn't, because New England still easily overmatched the Seattle receivers. Neither Baldwin or Kearse was ever...
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