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G0W51 comments on Open thread, Mar. 2 - Mar. 8, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Regulation to prevent forming space junk seems beneficial, as space junk could create Kessler syndrome, which would make it much harder to colonize space, which would increase existential risk, as without space colonization a catastrophe on Earth could kill off all intelligent Earth-originating life.
I know this isn't completely on-topic, but I don't know of any forum on x-risk, so I don't know of any better place to put it. On a related note, is there any demand for an x-risk forum? Someone (such as myself) should make one if there is enough demand for it.
There is a general problem that a commons transitions from abundant to tragic as demand grows. At what point do you introduce some kind of centralized regulation (eg, property rights)? How do you do that?
But space is nowhere near that point. Not worrying about Kessler syndrome is the right answer. And if it were going to be a problem in the foreseeable future, there are very few users of space, so they could easily negotiate a solution. If you expect that in the future every city of a million people will be sovereign with its own space program, then there is more of a tragic commons, but in that scenario space is the least of your problems.
I'm not so sure that space around Earth is nowhere near that point. There is a concern that a collision with the single large satellite Envisat could trigger Kessler Syndrome, and "two catalogued objects pass within about 200m of it every year."