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Douglas_Knight comments on Open thread, Mar. 2 - Mar. 8, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion
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No, they don't.
Assuming the bet has a fixed utility, then EU gives it a fixed estimate right away. Whereas my method considers it along with all other bets that it's made or expects to make, and it's estimate can change over time. I should have said that it's not independent or fixed, but that is what I meant.
In the VNM scheme where expected utility is derived at a consequence of the axioms, the way that a bet's utility changes over time is that its utility is not fixed. Nothing at all stops you from changing the utility you attach to a 50:50 gamble of getting a kitten versus $5 if your utility for a kitten (or for $5) changes: for example, if you get another kitten or win the lottery.
Generalizing to allow the value of the bet to change when the value of the options did not change seems strange to me.