And so very quickly Omega might have to offer me a lifetime longer than the lifetime of the universe, and because I don't believe that's possible I say "no thanks, I don't think you can deliver, and in the odd case where you can deliver, I'm not sure that I want what you can deliver."
the house cannot pay you more than the total wealth of the Earth, in which case the expected value of the bet comes out to a reasonable, low number of dollars, roughly where people estimate the value of the bet.
This is a cop out. Obviously that specific situation can't occur in reality, that's not the point. If your decision algorithm fails in some extreme cases, at least confess that it's not universal.
And so very quickly Omega might have to offer me a lifetime longer than the lifetime of the universe, and because I don't believe that's possible I say "no thanks, I don't think you can deliver
Same thing. Omega's ability and honesty are premises.
The point of the thought experiment is just to show that EU is required to trade away huge amounts of outcome-space for really good but improbable outcomes. This is a good strategy if you plan on making an infinite number of bets, but horrible if you don't expect to live forever.
I don't get your drug research analogy. There is no pascal's equivalent situation in drug research. At best you find a molecule that cures all diseases, but that's hardly infinite utility.
Instead it would be more like, "there is a tiny, tiny probability that a virus could emerge which causes humans not to die, but to suffer for eternity in the worst pain possible. Therefore, by EU calculation, I should spend all of my resources searching for a possible vaccine for this specific disease, and nothing else."
This is a cop out. Obviously that specific situation can't occur in reality, that's not the point. If your decision algorithm fails in some extreme cases, at least confess that it's not universal.
What does it mean for a decision algorithm to fail? I'll give an answer later, but here I'll point out that I do endorse that multiplication of reals is universal--that is, I don't think multiplication breaks down when the numbers get extreme enough.
Same thing. Omega's ability and honesty are premises.
And an unbelievable premise leads to an unbelievable con...
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
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