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polymathwannabe comments on Open thread, Mar. 16 - Mar. 22, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion
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For calculations of conditional probabilities I've found an initial sample size of 10,000 is more manageable. But that's just me.
Yes, if you are not prone to silly order-of-magnitude errors in mental arithmethics. For example if it is intuitive and fast for you that the square root of 40000 is 200 and never make the mistake of thinking for a second it is 2000 or 20. I do. Not sure why.