We're heading into the last few hours to make predictions on the outcome of the latest round of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case. I've made mine. See also here (and, for that matter, the post and other comments).

The main sources of uncertainty are the general unpredictability of Italian Supreme Court decisions (as demonstrated in the nigh-inexplicable -- at least on naïve theories of how the system should work -- overturning of the acquittal by the Supreme Court two years ago), the fact that the panel that hears the case tomorrow won't actually be the same one as the one that heard it the first time, the fact that a juror in last year's retrial has come out expressing doubts about the case in the Italian press recently, and the fact that Knox and Sollecito do, in fact, have a pretty good case (even if their case was better at the previous levels of trial).

Of course, these factors aren't independent by any means, and I think they are dominated by the inertia of the previous verdicts. But, I don't dare put my confidence at more than about 60%.