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satt comments on Open thread, Mar. 23 - Mar. 31, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Does the harm of smoking scale linearly? I went from about 15 cig a day to about 3, without any effort, at some point it just made me feel sick and nauseous if I wasn't having it with/after coffee. Consider the problem 80% solved? Stupid question, but why do people talk about the harm of smoking in general, instead of weighting it with dose? Because most people cannot before a pack a day? I too was on my to that if not for the new nausea effect. One study suggests linearity for one effect at least for men but probably nobody has a firm idea whether overally all of the effects are linear or not, but why shouldn't they be? At this point the only reason to not stop completely is that coffee generates a strong smoke craving.
Incidence of some cancers is described fairly well by a multistage model of carcinogenesis, which posits that a cell has to go through multiple pre-cancerous stages before it becomes a cancer. Suppose the model is true. If smoking accelerates the transition at multiple steps on the path to carcinogenesis, then smoking's effect on cumulative cancer incidence can be super-linear.
Not my clever idea, sadly, I got it from another paper.