You're looking at Less Wrong's discussion board. This includes all posts, including those that haven't been promoted to the front page yet. For more information, see About Less Wrong.

gjm comments on Open Thread, Apr. 13 - Apr. 19, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion

4 Post author: Gondolinian 13 April 2015 12:19AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (319)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: gjm 16 April 2015 11:27:59AM 1 point [-]

The approach you describe is sensible, but I don't see what it has to do with probabilities; all the probabilities involved are either 0 or 1.

Comment author: Romashka 16 April 2015 01:28:40PM *  0 points [-]

I mean, the 'perfect logicians' part put me into thinking like '...and if there are 3 BlE and 100 BrE, and the Guru says 'I see at least 1 BlE', then at that moment each one of the three BlE thinks there's 2/3 chances she means either of the other two, so next time just before noon, when they converge again, one of the three BlE finds the other two and goes away without saying anything. Then if next morning the two others are found to have left, he knows he's chance of being the only BlE left has gone up and presents himself for inspection. When he is confirmed as BlE, next time it automatically releases all BrE. Now let's consider the case of four BlE present...' etc. I doubt it can be done easily for large groups of people, though, unless they cooperate. The easiest way to do it is to appear before the Guru in pairs:)