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DeVliegendeHollander comments on Could you tell me what's wrong with this? - Less Wrong Discussion
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Thinking that one can outsmart the market is the biggest bias in this regard. People like Soros and Buffet were either lucky or had secret information others didn't, because otherwise it should be very, very unlikely to outsmart the market.
I wasn't referring to the stock market. I know that almost all money made by 'playing the market' is due to luck. What I meant was creating the right type of service/good with the right kind of marketing. More like Steve Jobs, Elon Musk and so forth.
A quant who does day trading can find that there some market inefficiency between the prices of different products and then make money with the effect.
That's not how either Soros or Buffet made their fortunes but it's still possible for other people.