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TheOtherDave comments on Open Thread, Apr. 20 - Apr. 26, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion
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I think you mean "that there are only two possible futures."
Which leaves me puzzled as to your point.
If I am confident that there are only two possible futures, one where I pay and live, and one where I don't pay and die, how is that different from being confident that paying causes me to live, or from being confident that not-paying causes me to die? Those just seem like three different ways of describing the same situation to me.