Viliam comments on Open Thread, May 4 - May 10, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Yes, low priors for Jayman's hypothesis. Although it wasn't sufficiently specified what exactly his hypothesis was, so I could be arguing against a strawman.
I am not an expert on infant formulas, but I think that if someone could factory-produce a drink that updates your immune system (as breast milk does), that would have huge implications in medicine. Essentially, we could replace vaccination by drinking soylent.
There have been many randomized controlled experiments of breast milk vs formula. Every single one of them has shown no effect.
I just did a little googling and that appears to be untrue. What's the source of your information?
The first hits from a Google search for <<random controlled trial breast formula milk>> were:
And that's the end of the first page. So it looks to me as if
Which seems like pretty much the reverse of what you say. But of course looking briefly at one page of Google results is not a proper scholarly literature review; would you like to tell us more?
http://www.bayesianrisk.com/chapters.html http://www.bayesianrisk.com/sample_chapters/Chapter%201%20There%20is%20more%20to%20assessing%20risk%20than%20statistics.pdf
I agree with Viliam & gym. This just points to the limits of statistical knowledge & that we need to supplement with other logical-experimental knowledge, such as arguments from evolution.
Risk cannot only be based on statistical knowledge, as chapter one of bayesian risk argues.