Given that I know somebody is a virtue ethicist, I place a prior probability of 20% that they are bisexual, and a prior probability of 40% that they are some variant of highly functional sociopath.
That's adjusted for overconfidence. I -want- to assign 60% to bisexuality and 80% to sociopath.
Your beliefs imply likelihood ratios of ~10 and ~70 for bisexuality and sociopathy respectively (assuming base rates of 2-3% and 1%, respectively). What do you think you know and how do you think you know it?
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
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