I think that I either wake up in a room with no in the envelope, or die, in which case my clone continues to live.
But this world I described is (or can be) completely deterministic; how can you be uncertain of what will happen? I understand how I can be subjectively uncertain due to self-locating uncertainty, but there should be no possible objective uncertainty in a deterministic world. The only out I see if if you think consciousness requires non-deterministic physical processes.
I find this model implausible. Is there any evidence I can update on?
I'm not sure I understand your reasoning here, so I'm not sure. Have you read the Ebborian posts in the quantum sequence?
What exactly do you think would happen when someone is cloned? Why would one copy be "real" and the other not? Would there be any way to detect which was real for outsiders?
OK, either I wake up in a room with no envelope or die (deterministically) depends on which envelope you have put in my room.
What exactly happens in the process of cloning certainly depends on a particular cloning technology; the real one is that which shares continuous conscious experience line with me. The (obvious) way to detect which was real for an outsider is to look at where it came from -- if it was built as a clone, then, well, it is a clone.
Note that I'm not saying that it's the true model, just that I currently find it more plausible; none of t...
A self-modifying AI is built to serve humanity. The builders know, of course, that this is much riskier than it seems, because its success would render their own observations extremely rare. To solve the problem, they direct the AI to create billions of simulated humanities in the hope that this will serve as a Schelling point to them, and make their own universe almost certainly simulated.
Plausible?