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Lumifer comments on Open Thread, Jun. 8 - Jun. 14, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Ahem X-D
When very small shell scripts can be used to replace the researchers who are coming up with ways to keep computer improvements resembling Moore's Law coming, then that'll be a bit more relevant. :)
"Computer" used to be a job for humans. As Marc Andreessen pointed out long time ago, software is eating the world -- note the present tense, no need to wait for AIs or uploads.
And some jobs are more amenable to replacement than others. (Eg, "Manna", by Marshall Brain, at http://marshallbrain.com/manna1.htm .) It seems safe to say that being able to create ems would be a significant step in replacing jobs currently held by biological humans; but there are all sorts of details involved which change the economic equations, such as how much RAM an em requires, and when the first em comes online. I'm afraid that your statement doesn't seem to offer anything that I can use to improve my current estimates on any of these matters.
True. Sorry for the derailing onto a side track :-)
No worries; thread drift happens.
Now, is there any chance I can get you to offer any answers to my questions in my original comment..? ;)
I am still not going to be particularly useful :-/
With respect to uploads/ems my position is hardcore Knightian uncertainty: not only I don't have any estimates of the timing, I will disbelieve any estimates other people produce as well.
In fact, I don't know if one can generate an upload by brain scanning at all. I certainly don't think it's an inevitability only delayed by the need to develop appropriate tech.