Dissolved, 60% probability. (I guess the quantity of soap does not diminish as easily through friction with water as through friction with skin, but still, that's a boatload of water.) Sink, 30% probability. And here and now I announce to the world that I don't have good enough intuitions for the Law of Archimedes, so 10% it would float. (And eventually dissolve. Maybe.)

Here's mine: Without looking it up, what percentage of Chinese adults are employed in manufacturing? Is it more or less than 30%? Data that would be accurate for any year between 2006-2015 is a good answer.