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James_Miller comments on Open Thread, Jul. 6 - Jul. 12, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion

5 Post author: MrMind 06 July 2015 07:31AM

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Comment author: James_Miller 06 July 2015 10:27:04PM 3 points [-]

This is too strong given that predictions have probability estimates associated with them, and some predictions are better than others. For example, a prediction of a 1% chance of a Greek civil war is better than predicting a 50% chance of one.