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James_Miller comments on Open Thread, Jul. 6 - Jul. 12, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion
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If anyone would have a way of knowing, that kind of methodology would have made us mega-rich long ago by investing, shorting etc.
Sort of if you don't see millions of dollars suddenly going to effective altruism and MIRI then LW is probably not that much better at figuring it out as anyone else :)
This is too strong given that predictions have probability estimates associated with them, and some predictions are better than others. For example, a prediction of a 1% chance of a Greek civil war is better than predicting a 50% chance of one.