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chaosmage comments on Open Thread, Jul. 6 - Jul. 12, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion
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If anyone would have a way of knowing, that kind of methodology would have made us mega-rich long ago by investing, shorting etc.
Sort of if you don't see millions of dollars suddenly going to effective altruism and MIRI then LW is probably not that much better at figuring it out as anyone else :)
My wild uninformed guess is that the "troika" institutions will accept some property of the Greek state in return for writing off a big part of the debt. The Greek state has things to sell, like its majority stake in Greece's biggest electric power company, and this would help the lenders get something for those bad debts in order to save face towards their voters.
I don't know how strong is the sense of nationalism in Greece, but I suspect if it is even moderate-strong, there will be a lot of resistance to that. Selling state assets to foreigners, especially if it is an asset that provides an important service to locals, especially if it is "gunpoint sale", could really rub people's nationalistic sentiments the wrong way.