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Good_Burning_Plastic comments on Open Thread, Jul. 20 - Jul. 26, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion
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It doesn't (though it does mostly prevent it from being useful), but the statement you made upthread was not that one. It was "Today there's nothing like a real safe job", in which context "safe" would normally be taken to mean something like "reasonably safe", not "exactly 100% safe".
What do you mean by "on its surface"? What matters is if it's true in its most likely reasonable interpretation in its context.
Meh. Enough with the wordplays and let's get quantitative. What do you think the P(DVH will lose his current job before he wants to|he doesn't leave it for a startup) is? What do you think he thinks it is?
I didn't just say "safe" I added the qualifier "real" to it. I also started the sentence with "today" with makes it more like a general platitude. I specifically didn't say your job isn't safe but made the general statement that no job is really safe.
It happens to be a general platitude commonly repeated in popular culture.
I think he didn't have a probability estimate for that in his mind at the time I was writing those lines. When you assume he had such a thing you miss the point of the exercise.