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Elo comments on Open Thread, Jul. 20 - Jul. 26, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion

4 Post author: MrMind 20 July 2015 06:55AM

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Comment author: Elo 24 July 2015 12:16:37AM 4 points [-]

This sounds like a case of confirmation bias. In that if your "gut feeling" was never confirmed as something, you probably wouldn't remember having the gut feeling. You could have been waiting every day for the rest of your life, and still not have gotten the gut-success feeling.

That doesn't help you recalibrate about it, but I wouldn't be listening to gut any more or less in the future.